Saturday, December 08, 2007
Rumors Are Like Armpits...and So On
There's a smoking hot trade rumor rolling around that involves the Giants, and it's not particularly good. The team is apparently seriously considering a Tim Lincecum-for-Alex Rios trade, which currently has the lunatic fringe in quite the uproar. Apparently the deal is "sitting on Brian Sabean's desk" right now, and I saw one horrifying rumor that Sabean was ready to pull the trigger, only to be thankfully talked out of it by his cohorts in the front office.
My reaction to the Timmy-for-Rios babble can be summed up simply with this. The reasons not to make this trade are so obvious that I just can't believe that the Giants didn't pooh-pooh it at first mention. Has Sabean really lost his mind? Is his mission the next two seasons going to be to make as many stupid moves as possible just to spite those of us who wanted him fired? I can picture him now at a press conference, announcing the Lincecum/Rios trade, waving his two-year contract extension around and cackling with glee while flipping us all the bird.
Grant at McCovey Chronicles brilliantly sums why this move would be miserable here and here (and apparently Tim Kawakami didn't take too well to that second one). Rios is a very good player and might even improve into a 30-homer guy, but he's not going to turn a franchise around. Not even close. He might, might, have another two or three All-Star seasons in him, but he's definitely not a guy you build your team around. If he's the third-best hitter on your team, then you're on to something.
Lincecum meanwhile, with the way he blew away hitters in the minors and showed signs of dominance this past season, has the ability to be the best pitcher in the National League in the next few years, and that has way more value, obviously, than a 26-year-old corner outfielder who hits free agency in two years. There are players who I would trade Lincecum straight-up for (Jay Bruce of the Reds being one, but I can't see that happening), but Rios is definitely not one of them.
Here's what I think is going on. In Moneyball, Billy Beane famously referred to Brian Sabean as the "master of the dry hump", and hopefully that's the case here. Sabean might just be feigning interest in the hopes that, if he leads them on enough, the Blue Jays will keep going further and further until they offer something crazy and Sabes makes off like a bandit. At least, I pray that's the case. I think the fact that the whispers of this trade turned so quickly into shouts means that the dry humping has given way to full fledged Mile High Club status, as lurid a mental picture as that analogy will give you.
What I do know is that if this trade does happen, and the guy who so many dubbed "The Savior" is wearing blue and speaking French next season, prepare to see Mays Field burned to the ground, with me at the front lines, kerosene in hand.
--I'll go into this more on Monday, but...we're free. Is this really real? If I pinch myself, will I wake up to a cold reality of clueless hacking and sub-.290 OBPs?
--Didn't get the time for the usual TGIF video yesterday, so we'll put one up for TGIS, I suppose. If you grew up on Nintendo games and you haven't been enlightened to the AVGN, you're missing out.
One of the main reasons of hope I had for this deal never going through (besides it being awful) is the fact that even the Giants are going to suck next year, I want t watch them every 2 out of 5 games because of Cain and Lincecum. I might watch more, but I won't like it. Those two are the on players exciting enough to bring people out the ballpark in what is assuredly going to be a down year. Alex Rios is not going to put on extra butt in that stadium.
If I've got a mortgage to pay, this might go a ways when I'm deciding who's available for trade.