Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Gonna Take You Back to the Past...
I'd like to take a quick moment here to look back at some preseason predictions I made and see if my ability to see into the future is legitimate or just a poorly conceived scam to take money from idiots like Sylvia Browne's. At the very least, I can almost certainly say that I'm a better prognosticator than those damned Web Bots that predicted a global catastrophe today (maybe they were just talking about John McCain's debate performance...oof).
Here's a list of my predicted leaders in a number of categories for the Giants this season, re-printed here from this small post back in March.
BA: Randy Winn, .295
R: Winn, 80
2B: Winn, 36
3B: Dave Roberts, 9
HR: Aaron Rowand, 17
RBI: Rowand, 71
SB: Roberts, 43
BB: Ray Durham, 61
OPS: Durham, .825
W: Tim Lincecum, 12
K: Lincecum, 205
IP: Matt Cain, 223
ERA: Lincecum, 3.12
SV: Brian Wilson, 23
Um, who exactly predicted Dave Roberts to lead the team in steals and triples?
(points finger and whispers) That one.
Uh, yeah, anyway. Here are the actual 2008 Giants leaders. Let's see how well I fared.
BA: Randy Winn, .306
R: Winn, 84
2B: Winn, 38
3B: Fred Lewis, 11
HR: Bengie Molina, 16
RBI: Molina, 95
SB: Winn, 25
BB: Winn, 59
OPS: Lewis, .794
W: Tim Lincecum, 18
K: Lincecum, 265
IP: Lincecum, 227
ERA: Lincecum, 2.62
SV: Brian Wilson, 41
I honestly gotta say, I think I did pretty well for myself here. My advanced powers of the mind are finally manifesting themselves. Uri Geller, eat your heart out. I was almost dead on with the batting average, runs, doubles, and walks, and very close on the home run total. I expected to just be way off across the board. Also, Durham would have led the Giants in OPS if he had enough at bats to qualify, and he also probably would have led the team in walks had he not been traded.
I thought my preseason forecast for Lincecum was wildly optimistic, but he proved me wrong and shattered I think everybody's expectations. It goes to show just how talented the guy is. I thought he'd need another year or two of adjustment before he broke out completely.
I would also like to pat myself on the back a little for this shrewd comment back in March about Brian Wilson:
>>There won't be a lot of wins for Wilson to save, but any Giants victory will probably be low-scoring, so if he can handle the closer's role, a 30-save season isn't out of the question.<<
(pats back as shit-eating grin spreads over face) Wilson didn't save 30; he saved 40, and my theory was absolutely right. The Giant offense wasn't very good, obviously, and when they did win the score was usually 3-2 or 2-1, so Wilson got a ton of save opportunities. In reality, Wilson actually wasn't very good and his season served as a perfect illustration of why the save stat is so freaking stupid, but he did show the ability to "rear back, fill his pants, and throw" 100 mph, as Mike Krukow would say, and there's a quality reliever hiding in there somewhere.
--Over on Bugs and Cranks, I've started a position-by-position recap of the Giants in 2008. Yesterday I talked catchers, and had some flattering things to say about Bengie. Today I talked about first base, and it got ugly. Second base tomorrow and more in the coming week. Check it out.
Here's a list of my predicted leaders in a number of categories for the Giants this season, re-printed here from this small post back in March.
BA: Randy Winn, .295
R: Winn, 80
2B: Winn, 36
3B: Dave Roberts, 9
HR: Aaron Rowand, 17
RBI: Rowand, 71
SB: Roberts, 43
BB: Ray Durham, 61
OPS: Durham, .825
W: Tim Lincecum, 12
K: Lincecum, 205
IP: Matt Cain, 223
ERA: Lincecum, 3.12
SV: Brian Wilson, 23
Um, who exactly predicted Dave Roberts to lead the team in steals and triples?
(points finger and whispers) That one.
Uh, yeah, anyway. Here are the actual 2008 Giants leaders. Let's see how well I fared.
BA: Randy Winn, .306
R: Winn, 84
2B: Winn, 38
3B: Fred Lewis, 11
HR: Bengie Molina, 16
RBI: Molina, 95
SB: Winn, 25
BB: Winn, 59
OPS: Lewis, .794
W: Tim Lincecum, 18
K: Lincecum, 265
IP: Lincecum, 227
ERA: Lincecum, 2.62
SV: Brian Wilson, 41
I honestly gotta say, I think I did pretty well for myself here. My advanced powers of the mind are finally manifesting themselves. Uri Geller, eat your heart out. I was almost dead on with the batting average, runs, doubles, and walks, and very close on the home run total. I expected to just be way off across the board. Also, Durham would have led the Giants in OPS if he had enough at bats to qualify, and he also probably would have led the team in walks had he not been traded.
I thought my preseason forecast for Lincecum was wildly optimistic, but he proved me wrong and shattered I think everybody's expectations. It goes to show just how talented the guy is. I thought he'd need another year or two of adjustment before he broke out completely.
I would also like to pat myself on the back a little for this shrewd comment back in March about Brian Wilson:
>>There won't be a lot of wins for Wilson to save, but any Giants victory will probably be low-scoring, so if he can handle the closer's role, a 30-save season isn't out of the question.<<
(pats back as shit-eating grin spreads over face) Wilson didn't save 30; he saved 40, and my theory was absolutely right. The Giant offense wasn't very good, obviously, and when they did win the score was usually 3-2 or 2-1, so Wilson got a ton of save opportunities. In reality, Wilson actually wasn't very good and his season served as a perfect illustration of why the save stat is so freaking stupid, but he did show the ability to "rear back, fill his pants, and throw" 100 mph, as Mike Krukow would say, and there's a quality reliever hiding in there somewhere.
--Over on Bugs and Cranks, I've started a position-by-position recap of the Giants in 2008. Yesterday I talked catchers, and had some flattering things to say about Bengie. Today I talked about first base, and it got ugly. Second base tomorrow and more in the coming week. Check it out.
Labels: bad predictions, brian wilson, Tim Lincecum
