Monday, April 06, 2009
Tim Lincecum vs. the Overpaid Soft-Tosser and His Eight Wallbangers
Opening Day, Kaloo Kalay! Tomorrow should be a nice test to see how supposedly improved the Giant offense really is (I've got my eye on you, PECOTA), as the Brewers pit their $42 million mistake Jeff Suppan against defending Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (how awesome does it feel to say that?). The Brewers lost their two best pitchers to free agency, so now the guy who tossed up a nearly five ERA last season gets the start in the opener. It seems like a complete mismatch, but baseball is a crazy game, so take nothing for granted.
I remember the Giants shellacking Suppan in this game way back in 1998 and thinking he didn't have a chance in the majors, but lo and behold, it's ten years later and he's a former postseason hero with 128 wins under his belt. Every step of the way, from Kansas City to Pittsburgh to St. Louis, critics were sure he was destined to fail, so kudos to him for proving everybody wrong.
Statistically, Suppan is a bit of a strange case. He's a soft-tosser who can't overpower anybody, so he must rely on impeccable control to get batters out, right? Guess again. His career rate of three walks per nine innings is hardly spectacular for anybody (that includes a huge spike last season). So he must get a lot of ground balls to negate the baserunners, then? Nope. Only 44% of balls put in play were grounders. Does he limit home runs? Nope, 30 of them last year.
(looks around frantically for help)
So, um, how the hell does this guy get anybody out? Frankly, your guess is as good as mine, as well as a nation of millions. Last year he wasn't really even any good as a league average innings eater, as he managed less than six innings per start, with an ERA+ of 87. He must get by with that good ol' veteran moxie that made him the toast of the '06 Cardinal postseason. At this point in his career, for a team with a real lineup, he'd likely be toast. But the Giants? Ehhhh....
--The Giants' roster is set, and here it is, in all it's glory. There were a few major surprises, some good, some...strange.
-Rich Aurilia/Juan Uribe. Who here really believed these two guys wouldn't be on the Opening Day roster when they were signed to minor league deals? Uribe is a terrible hitter who should strictly be used as a late-inning defensive sub, but he'll probably be starting in some capacity come July. I have more empathy for Aurilia because of the whole nostalgia thing but who wants to bet he gets waaaaaay more at-bats than he deserves this season, especially at the first signs of struggle from Travis Ishikawa?
-Andres Torres. Yeah, I have no idea who the hell he is, either. Apparently, he's a 31-year-old minor league vet who hasn't seen major league daylight since 2005. He can run like the wind and once upon a time could draw some walks, but don't you look at his minor league line and immediately think Alex Sanchez? Maybe I'm being unfair. If he can handle the glove and stick as a fifth outfielder I won't complain.
-Catcher situation. There's no Steve Holm, which means Pablo Sandoval is the backup catcher while getting regular at-bats at third, but this won't last long. The recurring nightmares managers have of being stuck with an emergency catcher, Pedro Feliz-style, probably mean Holm or someone else will be up around May or so.
-Eugenio Velez. (groan)
-Alex Hinshaw as LOOGY. Not too shocking, as Hinshaw can be filthy when he's on. He has to improve his control if he's going to be a viable late-inning option, and it'd help if he could get a righty out once in a while, but he's got the nasty stuff to be a key bullpenite this season.
-Merkin Valdez. Great to have him back after he was unfairly taken from us early by an elbow injury last season. If he comes back throwing like he did in April of last year he could help make this just a nasty bullpen, and, all these years later, still make that Russ Ortiz trade sorta worthwhile.
-Joe Martinez. Another double-take promotion. He's a control artist drafted in '05 with great K/BB rates in the minors. He'll probably be shuttling between here and Fresno all season, acting as Randy Johnson/Jonathan Sanchez insurance, or as a Scott Munter-type grounball artist experiment. Bay City Ball has all the dirt on him.
-The Luis Perdomo/Brandon Medders saga. It looked for all the world like Rule V pick Perdomo was going to make the team, but then he went and messed the bed on the Mays Field mound last Friday and off he went. The great strikeout numbers in Low-A looked intriguing, but he was a little old for the level and he was probably deemed expendable after the team pilfered Hector Correa from Florida.
Medders, meanwhile, hasn't done anything good, at any level, since 2006, so I don't really understand what made him preferable to, say, Justin Miller. I guess it's not worth it to get worked up over an interchangeable mop-up man, though.
Tomorrow I'll be catching the game on MLB Gameday on my lunch hour, about the best I can do to catch any updates of the game, short of draining my car battery listening to KNBR. Hey, it's better than seeing, via text message, that Armando Benitez has blown the game, like in Opening Day 2005. Anyway, it's been just way too long. I'm ready for Giants baseball, dammit!
I remember the Giants shellacking Suppan in this game way back in 1998 and thinking he didn't have a chance in the majors, but lo and behold, it's ten years later and he's a former postseason hero with 128 wins under his belt. Every step of the way, from Kansas City to Pittsburgh to St. Louis, critics were sure he was destined to fail, so kudos to him for proving everybody wrong.
Statistically, Suppan is a bit of a strange case. He's a soft-tosser who can't overpower anybody, so he must rely on impeccable control to get batters out, right? Guess again. His career rate of three walks per nine innings is hardly spectacular for anybody (that includes a huge spike last season). So he must get a lot of ground balls to negate the baserunners, then? Nope. Only 44% of balls put in play were grounders. Does he limit home runs? Nope, 30 of them last year.
(looks around frantically for help)
So, um, how the hell does this guy get anybody out? Frankly, your guess is as good as mine, as well as a nation of millions. Last year he wasn't really even any good as a league average innings eater, as he managed less than six innings per start, with an ERA+ of 87. He must get by with that good ol' veteran moxie that made him the toast of the '06 Cardinal postseason. At this point in his career, for a team with a real lineup, he'd likely be toast. But the Giants? Ehhhh....
--The Giants' roster is set, and here it is, in all it's glory. There were a few major surprises, some good, some...strange.
-Rich Aurilia/Juan Uribe. Who here really believed these two guys wouldn't be on the Opening Day roster when they were signed to minor league deals? Uribe is a terrible hitter who should strictly be used as a late-inning defensive sub, but he'll probably be starting in some capacity come July. I have more empathy for Aurilia because of the whole nostalgia thing but who wants to bet he gets waaaaaay more at-bats than he deserves this season, especially at the first signs of struggle from Travis Ishikawa?
-Andres Torres. Yeah, I have no idea who the hell he is, either. Apparently, he's a 31-year-old minor league vet who hasn't seen major league daylight since 2005. He can run like the wind and once upon a time could draw some walks, but don't you look at his minor league line and immediately think Alex Sanchez? Maybe I'm being unfair. If he can handle the glove and stick as a fifth outfielder I won't complain.
-Catcher situation. There's no Steve Holm, which means Pablo Sandoval is the backup catcher while getting regular at-bats at third, but this won't last long. The recurring nightmares managers have of being stuck with an emergency catcher, Pedro Feliz-style, probably mean Holm or someone else will be up around May or so.
-Eugenio Velez. (groan)
-Alex Hinshaw as LOOGY. Not too shocking, as Hinshaw can be filthy when he's on. He has to improve his control if he's going to be a viable late-inning option, and it'd help if he could get a righty out once in a while, but he's got the nasty stuff to be a key bullpenite this season.
-Merkin Valdez. Great to have him back after he was unfairly taken from us early by an elbow injury last season. If he comes back throwing like he did in April of last year he could help make this just a nasty bullpen, and, all these years later, still make that Russ Ortiz trade sorta worthwhile.
-Joe Martinez. Another double-take promotion. He's a control artist drafted in '05 with great K/BB rates in the minors. He'll probably be shuttling between here and Fresno all season, acting as Randy Johnson/Jonathan Sanchez insurance, or as a Scott Munter-type grounball artist experiment. Bay City Ball has all the dirt on him.
-The Luis Perdomo/Brandon Medders saga. It looked for all the world like Rule V pick Perdomo was going to make the team, but then he went and messed the bed on the Mays Field mound last Friday and off he went. The great strikeout numbers in Low-A looked intriguing, but he was a little old for the level and he was probably deemed expendable after the team pilfered Hector Correa from Florida.
Medders, meanwhile, hasn't done anything good, at any level, since 2006, so I don't really understand what made him preferable to, say, Justin Miller. I guess it's not worth it to get worked up over an interchangeable mop-up man, though.
Tomorrow I'll be catching the game on MLB Gameday on my lunch hour, about the best I can do to catch any updates of the game, short of draining my car battery listening to KNBR. Hey, it's better than seeing, via text message, that Armando Benitez has blown the game, like in Opening Day 2005. Anyway, it's been just way too long. I'm ready for Giants baseball, dammit!
