Monday, August 25, 2008
Hot Streak
As local sportscaster/unwatchable jackass Grant Napear might say, "Turn the sprinkler systems on, because the Giants are on fire!" My apologies for using that gag-inducing catch phrase, but it's true: the Giants are on a certified hot streak, having won five games in a row and eight of their last ten. Timely hitting and good pitching (including a couple of starts from Barry Zito that pleasepleaseohgodplease may be a sign of a return toward league averageness) have all contributed, as has the long-overdue influx of young players into the lineup. Replacing Jose Castillo's limp bat with the exciting firework potential of Pablo Sandoval is an upgrade too large for words.
This morning, Andrew Baggarly wrote a piece about how some Giants are still expressing optimism about coming back to win the mediocre NL West (link tip to Giants Win). Well, nice to dream, anyway. As much as we'd all love for the Giants to stage a furious run a la the 2007 Rockies, in this little place we like to call reality the Giants are ten games back with a little over a month to play. Also, as sucky as it is to point this out, the crest of this streak has come when the Giants swept the Padres, a team even crappier than our boys in black and orange. Miles crappier, if that can be believed. Baggarly also quotes two Giants players who reference the Rockies of '07, but they are the anomaly, not the norm. Late-season surges like that almost never happen.
That said, the Giants at this point are as watchable as they've been since that fateful ball left Steve Finley's bat in September of 2004. Sandoval at this point is a better player than Rich Aurilia (hell, maybe even Bengie Molina if he keeps his hot hitting up). Travis Ishikawa may go the way of the Bowker eventually, as his career minor league numbers aren't too inspiring, but maybe the strides he made at AA and AAA are for real. Emmanuel Burriss and Ivan Ochoa don't inspire a lot of confidence long term, but better them than the sad ghost of Omar. Ryan Rohlinger...um, well, he's better than Bocock! I'm sure.
As the season wears down it'll be at least worth watching to see if the new-look (of sorts) Giants can at least perform well enough to give this season a modicum of respectability. Just a few weeks ago this team looked well on its way to a loss total in the high-90's. Right now, though, the team is on pace to lose only 89 games, and with every win that total shrinks and this season looks less and less like a complete debacle. In twenty years we want to be able to look back and at least say, "well, during this down period in the late aughts the Giants were bad but not horrendous."
That, of course, will be followed by the inevitable: "What the fuck was Jose Castillo doing getting 400 at-bats?"
--Matt Cain tonight will try to even up his record for the first time since any of us can remember. Maybe it's just me, but there seems to be a faction of Giant fans that are down on Cain, and not because of his mediocre won-loss records. There seems to be some aura of disappointment because Cain hasn't turned into a star pitcher already, that he hasn't become what Lincecum is. This is just silly.
First, he's just not as good as Timmy. Deal with it. Second, he's a 23-year-old with a career 120 ERA+. Yeah, how dare you, Matt. Yes, he still walks too many batters and a lot of his starts are grueling descents into pitch count hell, but right now he's a well-above average pitcher who gives the team a ton of innings. That's pretty effing valuable, and of course there's a high likelihood of him improving as he gets older. If Cain, over the entirety of his Giants career, simply stays at this level, would that make him a disappointment, or just a victim of exceedingly high expectations?
This morning, Andrew Baggarly wrote a piece about how some Giants are still expressing optimism about coming back to win the mediocre NL West (link tip to Giants Win). Well, nice to dream, anyway. As much as we'd all love for the Giants to stage a furious run a la the 2007 Rockies, in this little place we like to call reality the Giants are ten games back with a little over a month to play. Also, as sucky as it is to point this out, the crest of this streak has come when the Giants swept the Padres, a team even crappier than our boys in black and orange. Miles crappier, if that can be believed. Baggarly also quotes two Giants players who reference the Rockies of '07, but they are the anomaly, not the norm. Late-season surges like that almost never happen.
That said, the Giants at this point are as watchable as they've been since that fateful ball left Steve Finley's bat in September of 2004. Sandoval at this point is a better player than Rich Aurilia (hell, maybe even Bengie Molina if he keeps his hot hitting up). Travis Ishikawa may go the way of the Bowker eventually, as his career minor league numbers aren't too inspiring, but maybe the strides he made at AA and AAA are for real. Emmanuel Burriss and Ivan Ochoa don't inspire a lot of confidence long term, but better them than the sad ghost of Omar. Ryan Rohlinger...um, well, he's better than Bocock! I'm sure.
As the season wears down it'll be at least worth watching to see if the new-look (of sorts) Giants can at least perform well enough to give this season a modicum of respectability. Just a few weeks ago this team looked well on its way to a loss total in the high-90's. Right now, though, the team is on pace to lose only 89 games, and with every win that total shrinks and this season looks less and less like a complete debacle. In twenty years we want to be able to look back and at least say, "well, during this down period in the late aughts the Giants were bad but not horrendous."
That, of course, will be followed by the inevitable: "What the fuck was Jose Castillo doing getting 400 at-bats?"
--Matt Cain tonight will try to even up his record for the first time since any of us can remember. Maybe it's just me, but there seems to be a faction of Giant fans that are down on Cain, and not because of his mediocre won-loss records. There seems to be some aura of disappointment because Cain hasn't turned into a star pitcher already, that he hasn't become what Lincecum is. This is just silly.
First, he's just not as good as Timmy. Deal with it. Second, he's a 23-year-old with a career 120 ERA+. Yeah, how dare you, Matt. Yes, he still walks too many batters and a lot of his starts are grueling descents into pitch count hell, but right now he's a well-above average pitcher who gives the team a ton of innings. That's pretty effing valuable, and of course there's a high likelihood of him improving as he gets older. If Cain, over the entirety of his Giants career, simply stays at this level, would that make him a disappointment, or just a victim of exceedingly high expectations?
Labels: let the young guys play dammit, matt cain
Friday, August 22, 2008
The Stankeye Baseball Reference Curse
Three years ago to this day, Randy Winn was possessed by the spirit of Mickey Mantle. Seriously. What other possible explanation could there have been for the havoc that Winn wrought upon the hapless pitchers of the National League in August and September of 2005? Certainly not his unspectacular past performance, which indicated a good hitter, but not a guy who could rip 14 homers in two months. Whatever the reason, in those penultimate months, Winn went on a tear the likes of which hadn't been seen by Giants fans since Barry Bonds's post-All Star Break home run binge in 2001.
Winn's reward for this surge was twofold. One, he was awarded a rich new contract extension that paid him a little over $23 million for three years. Second, and most importantly (in some circles), his Baseball Reference page was sponsored for a cool $20 by yours truly. That's right, I was excited about Winn's ability to at least replicate a modicum of the production that he offered in 2005, and I figured if he was a big success and people liked him, they'd see Stankeye linked on his BR page and come flocking over to this blog. Well, sometimes the best-laid plans...
One of those moves looked questionable at first, then turned out to be OK, depending on your point of view. The other looked great at first (at least in come circles) but by the end turned into a flaming disaster.
The first one? That's the contract that the Giants gave Winn, and it looked horrid following his sub-par '06 campaign. Winn suffered a poor year in 2006, hitting just .262 with no power or anything else of note, and started to get ripped in Giants circles. It didn't help that the expensive part of his contract was about to kick in the following season, and it looked like Winn might be declining fast. Fans were not happy. Not only did he not hit, but there was a guy named Fred Lewis in AAA who appeared to be able to replicate (or surpass) Winn's production for a fraction of the cost. Then the Giants went out and signed Dave Roberts (to a deal that is inarguably ridiculous) giving them two center fielders and seemingly rendering Winn's extension pointless. Ugh.
Well, in August of 2008 we can look back and say that that contract wasn't the end of the world. You can still debate the wisdom of it, but you can't debate Winn's production. In 2007, he hit .300/.353/.445 with 15 stolen bases and good defense. This season, he's hitting .308/.365/.431 with 22 steals (he's been caught just twice, both on botched hit-and-runs) and again with good defense. Say what you will about not having enough power for a corner outfielder, but ceteris paribus he's been a very good hitter. So that's two productive seasons for $12 million (the Giants probably would have exercised his 2006 option regardless). While the limited no-trade clause and the dollar amount might act as a hindrance to a trade (which the Giants should make), on a pure production scale, not bad.
So that second reward? Yeah, not so good. Winn's bad 2006 suddenly made my decision to sponsor his page and attach my blog and reputation to his name look like a terrible investment. When the one-year sponsorship expired in November of 2006, I got an e-mail from Baseball Reference asking if I wanted to renew my sponsorship. I couldn't say no vehemently enough. I was ready to move on to bigger and better things, and I had Matt Cain's page already in my sights for 2007 (we'll get to that in a second). Winn's page may not have been the worst $20 I've ever spent on a baseball-related subject (that award probably goes to this unbelievably boring book by Dayn Perry), but it was close.
To get to the point, Winn's bad year in '06 wasn't even his fault. It was mine. You see, for the 2007 year I decided to sponsor Cain's BR page, and with much the same business plan in mind. Young stud turns into a pitching star, fans flock to his BR page on a daily basis, and my blog sees an up-tick in hits. Well, as we all know, Cain wasn't bad by any means, but he suffered from a horrendous lack of run support and bad luck and ended up losing 16 games, despite being 10th in the NL in ERA.
Now, obviously wins and losses aren't indicative of real performance, but even in these enlightened baseball ages there are throngs of less illuminated individuals who still live and die by W-L percentage and would look at Cain as some simpering choke artist who couldn't bear down in the close ones. If Cain is stuck with this stigma, it's my fault, because apparently my sponsorship of any player's BR page carries a curse. Winn immediately turned back into a good player once Stankeye left the top of his page. This year Cain, while still struggling with run support and a mediocre record, at least won't lose 16 games now that my name is out of the picture.
I once thought about sponsoring the Giants' 2002 BR team page and commenting that they were one of the unrecognized great teams of the 00's (which they absolutely were), but then decided against it, figuring that, knowing my luck with these things, I'd be responsible for either retroactively cursing the Giants in that World Series, or something even more unholy, like preventing the Giants from ever making the World Series again. So if you were ever wondering about Randy Winn's blip of a 2006 season in his Giant resume, blame me. When Cain is inducted into the Hall of Fame and years from now analysts scratch their heads over his bizarre Nolan Ryan 1987-esque season, just send them a note and tell them the jerk from Stankeye is responsible. So for the Giants' sake, and their players, I'll never touch another Baseball Reference page again.
Winn's reward for this surge was twofold. One, he was awarded a rich new contract extension that paid him a little over $23 million for three years. Second, and most importantly (in some circles), his Baseball Reference page was sponsored for a cool $20 by yours truly. That's right, I was excited about Winn's ability to at least replicate a modicum of the production that he offered in 2005, and I figured if he was a big success and people liked him, they'd see Stankeye linked on his BR page and come flocking over to this blog. Well, sometimes the best-laid plans...
One of those moves looked questionable at first, then turned out to be OK, depending on your point of view. The other looked great at first (at least in come circles) but by the end turned into a flaming disaster.
The first one? That's the contract that the Giants gave Winn, and it looked horrid following his sub-par '06 campaign. Winn suffered a poor year in 2006, hitting just .262 with no power or anything else of note, and started to get ripped in Giants circles. It didn't help that the expensive part of his contract was about to kick in the following season, and it looked like Winn might be declining fast. Fans were not happy. Not only did he not hit, but there was a guy named Fred Lewis in AAA who appeared to be able to replicate (or surpass) Winn's production for a fraction of the cost. Then the Giants went out and signed Dave Roberts (to a deal that is inarguably ridiculous) giving them two center fielders and seemingly rendering Winn's extension pointless. Ugh.
Well, in August of 2008 we can look back and say that that contract wasn't the end of the world. You can still debate the wisdom of it, but you can't debate Winn's production. In 2007, he hit .300/.353/.445 with 15 stolen bases and good defense. This season, he's hitting .308/.365/.431 with 22 steals (he's been caught just twice, both on botched hit-and-runs) and again with good defense. Say what you will about not having enough power for a corner outfielder, but ceteris paribus he's been a very good hitter. So that's two productive seasons for $12 million (the Giants probably would have exercised his 2006 option regardless). While the limited no-trade clause and the dollar amount might act as a hindrance to a trade (which the Giants should make), on a pure production scale, not bad.
So that second reward? Yeah, not so good. Winn's bad 2006 suddenly made my decision to sponsor his page and attach my blog and reputation to his name look like a terrible investment. When the one-year sponsorship expired in November of 2006, I got an e-mail from Baseball Reference asking if I wanted to renew my sponsorship. I couldn't say no vehemently enough. I was ready to move on to bigger and better things, and I had Matt Cain's page already in my sights for 2007 (we'll get to that in a second). Winn's page may not have been the worst $20 I've ever spent on a baseball-related subject (that award probably goes to this unbelievably boring book by Dayn Perry), but it was close.
To get to the point, Winn's bad year in '06 wasn't even his fault. It was mine. You see, for the 2007 year I decided to sponsor Cain's BR page, and with much the same business plan in mind. Young stud turns into a pitching star, fans flock to his BR page on a daily basis, and my blog sees an up-tick in hits. Well, as we all know, Cain wasn't bad by any means, but he suffered from a horrendous lack of run support and bad luck and ended up losing 16 games, despite being 10th in the NL in ERA.
Now, obviously wins and losses aren't indicative of real performance, but even in these enlightened baseball ages there are throngs of less illuminated individuals who still live and die by W-L percentage and would look at Cain as some simpering choke artist who couldn't bear down in the close ones. If Cain is stuck with this stigma, it's my fault, because apparently my sponsorship of any player's BR page carries a curse. Winn immediately turned back into a good player once Stankeye left the top of his page. This year Cain, while still struggling with run support and a mediocre record, at least won't lose 16 games now that my name is out of the picture.
I once thought about sponsoring the Giants' 2002 BR team page and commenting that they were one of the unrecognized great teams of the 00's (which they absolutely were), but then decided against it, figuring that, knowing my luck with these things, I'd be responsible for either retroactively cursing the Giants in that World Series, or something even more unholy, like preventing the Giants from ever making the World Series again. So if you were ever wondering about Randy Winn's blip of a 2006 season in his Giant resume, blame me. When Cain is inducted into the Hall of Fame and years from now analysts scratch their heads over his bizarre Nolan Ryan 1987-esque season, just send them a note and tell them the jerk from Stankeye is responsible. So for the Giants' sake, and their players, I'll never touch another Baseball Reference page again.
Labels: matt cain, randy winn, stankeye br curse
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Cain't Take It Anymore
Methinks Matt Cain is a little tired of the lack of run support that has plagued his starts all season long, as he took matters into his own hands again today by blasting his second home run of the season to help his own cause in a 4-1 Giants win. Cain only has four hits all year, but two of them have been homers. At 6'3'', 234 pounds, Cain does seem like the kind of guy who should be able to put a charge into a few per season. He's only three away from Krukow.
The Giants salvaged the win today in a series I was really hoping that they would sweep. You see, back when I was a little youngin' and collecting baseball cards, I was a huge fan of Paul Molitor and Robin Yount, who were then paving their Hall of Fame paths with the Brewers. For whatever reason, I've always liked the Brewers just because of those guys. Of course, once those two left in the early '90's, the Brewers franchise was run into the ground over the course of the next decade by everybody's favorite used-car salesman. They haven't sniffed the postseason since 1982...the year I was born! Have mercy!
Now, however, they have a group of exciting young stars and they're right in the thick of the race in the NL Central. Their main combatants, of course, are the Cubs. Since the Giants aren't going anywhere, why not root for the Brew Crew to win the Central? They've suffered long enough, and their fans deserve some sort of redemption now that the Selig era is thankfully over. I realize the Cubs are sort of the weepy favorites because of their long history of suffering, but hey, it's not my fault Phil Wrigley wouldn't let that damned goat into his stadium.
Anyways, as for today's game...The good: Matt Cain's dominance, obviously, and the hitting of Dave Roberts and Randy Winn. The bad: Rajai Davis took another ofer and is stuck in a 1 for 19 rut. Maybe he really is the player that all those Pirates fans were pooh-poohing when he came over from Pittsburgh.
Also, Ray Durham is now hitting .221. Is this man really done? It's hard to believe after the year he put up in 2006, but right now it looks like it's time to stick a fork in him.
The Giants salvaged the win today in a series I was really hoping that they would sweep. You see, back when I was a little youngin' and collecting baseball cards, I was a huge fan of Paul Molitor and Robin Yount, who were then paving their Hall of Fame paths with the Brewers. For whatever reason, I've always liked the Brewers just because of those guys. Of course, once those two left in the early '90's, the Brewers franchise was run into the ground over the course of the next decade by everybody's favorite used-car salesman. They haven't sniffed the postseason since 1982...the year I was born! Have mercy!
Now, however, they have a group of exciting young stars and they're right in the thick of the race in the NL Central. Their main combatants, of course, are the Cubs. Since the Giants aren't going anywhere, why not root for the Brew Crew to win the Central? They've suffered long enough, and their fans deserve some sort of redemption now that the Selig era is thankfully over. I realize the Cubs are sort of the weepy favorites because of their long history of suffering, but hey, it's not my fault Phil Wrigley wouldn't let that damned goat into his stadium.
Anyways, as for today's game...The good: Matt Cain's dominance, obviously, and the hitting of Dave Roberts and Randy Winn. The bad: Rajai Davis took another ofer and is stuck in a 1 for 19 rut. Maybe he really is the player that all those Pirates fans were pooh-poohing when he came over from Pittsburgh.
Also, Ray Durham is now hitting .221. Is this man really done? It's hard to believe after the year he put up in 2006, but right now it looks like it's time to stick a fork in him.
Labels: brew crew, chicago cubs, matt cain
