Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Dive In and Swim
I was down in San Luis Obispo (i.e. Dodger territory, the only blemish in such a wonderful area) this weekend, so I was unable to catch Tim Lincecum's domination of the Padres (I did catch Francisco Rodriguez breaking the saves record on TV...more on that later). Lincecum threw his first career complete game shutout, a 12-strikeout masterpiece that should cement his hold on the Cy Young. I didn't have any access to the Internet on Saturday so I had to check the box score on my cell phone. When I saw Lincecum's line, I nearly let out a girlish squeal. It was a beautiful work of art, that game, something that should be displayed in the Louvre. If a pitching line could be embodied by a woman, Lincecum's shutout would be Monica Bellucci.
So why is this exquisite work of art generating so much controversy? Because Lincecum's 12-strikeout masterpiece just happened to be a 12-strikeout, 138 pitch masterpiece. Um, yeah, that's a lot of pitches. As in, no one has thrown that many this season, or for a very long time. Lincecum is 24, so thus he is still in that pre-25 danger zone when a lot of young pitchers tend to hurt themselves. So naturally, he is being worked like a dog, for a team not in contention. This is a tad precarious.
Once again, I'd like to reiterate that I'm not a pitch count nazi, but letting Lincecum go back out there to finish the game with a 7-0 lead was just flat out retarded. I'd like to think we're past the point in our baseball lives where our eyes mist over because of that shiny "1" in the shutout column. Bruce Jenkins may have shat himself at the sight of Lincecum "finishing what he started", but the Giants are risking the future of the franchise because of some old-fashioned macho bullshit. It's that simple.
If the Giants were battling it out for a pennant and Lincecum was hanging on to a shutout with a slim lead, then yes, I sure as hell would rather have him out there than Brian Wilson. A 7-0 lead for a team with a stranglehold on fourth place, though? Start mass-producing the pink slips please, with the first one sent via express mail to Bruce Bochy.
Some have chosen to froth at the mouth over the team's handling of Lincecum, some have decided to just hide under some coats and hope everything works out. My opinion? Well, those coats are awfully cozy. Perhaps Timmy is just a freak whose unorthodox mechanics will keep his arm relatively healthy and protect him from moronic managerial decisions. We can certainly hope and pray that he's one of those guys who comes along once in a blue moon and never has a serious injury, despite a heavy workload, like Nolan Ryan or Roger Clemens. If, however, there comes a day that Timmy has to leave a game complaining of tightness in his arm and suddenly goes the way of the Foppert, don't say it couldn't have been prevented.
So why is this exquisite work of art generating so much controversy? Because Lincecum's 12-strikeout masterpiece just happened to be a 12-strikeout, 138 pitch masterpiece. Um, yeah, that's a lot of pitches. As in, no one has thrown that many this season, or for a very long time. Lincecum is 24, so thus he is still in that pre-25 danger zone when a lot of young pitchers tend to hurt themselves. So naturally, he is being worked like a dog, for a team not in contention. This is a tad precarious.
Once again, I'd like to reiterate that I'm not a pitch count nazi, but letting Lincecum go back out there to finish the game with a 7-0 lead was just flat out retarded. I'd like to think we're past the point in our baseball lives where our eyes mist over because of that shiny "1" in the shutout column. Bruce Jenkins may have shat himself at the sight of Lincecum "finishing what he started", but the Giants are risking the future of the franchise because of some old-fashioned macho bullshit. It's that simple.
If the Giants were battling it out for a pennant and Lincecum was hanging on to a shutout with a slim lead, then yes, I sure as hell would rather have him out there than Brian Wilson. A 7-0 lead for a team with a stranglehold on fourth place, though? Start mass-producing the pink slips please, with the first one sent via express mail to Bruce Bochy.
Some have chosen to froth at the mouth over the team's handling of Lincecum, some have decided to just hide under some coats and hope everything works out. My opinion? Well, those coats are awfully cozy. Perhaps Timmy is just a freak whose unorthodox mechanics will keep his arm relatively healthy and protect him from moronic managerial decisions. We can certainly hope and pray that he's one of those guys who comes along once in a blue moon and never has a serious injury, despite a heavy workload, like Nolan Ryan or Roger Clemens. If, however, there comes a day that Timmy has to leave a game complaining of tightness in his arm and suddenly goes the way of the Foppert, don't say it couldn't have been prevented.
Labels: monica belucci is hot, obligatory nerdy simpsons reference, pitch count madness, Tim Lincecum
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
It's All Over...for the Organizational Soldier
I came home late tonight and caught the end of the A's game and, man, I've got to say, as much as we all bitch and complain about the Giants and their dismal current situation, I am really glad I'm not an A's fan right now. The Giants aren't particularly exciting, obviously, but at least they've got Fred Lewis and Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn, who are at least cool players to watch, and they've got some young guys like Pablo Sandoval who could make a mark soon. Not to mention, the Giants have Timmy, whose every start is an exercise in sadistic viewing pleasure for us fans as he mows down hapless hitter after hapless hitter.
The A's, on the other hand? Man, that team is just the most dull and boring bunch blahs out there. Not one of their players is exciting, none of their guys can hit, and their pitching staff, while good, is pretty much an assortment of bland lefties. Except for maybe when Jack Cust bats, what with his freakish Three True Outcomes thing, I think I'd rather watch a montage of hideous '80's anti-drug PSAs than watch the A's for any stretch of time. The A's have a good farm system and I'm sure Billy Beane has a master plan, but for now...egad. So that's something you can thank your lucky stars for, fellow Giants fans.
Anyway, I have to do some quick live blogging because I have to get out of here and watch Street Kings before I get charged a late fee. I really don't want to spend an extra five dollars just to find out if Keanu Reeves can carry an urban crime drama all by himself. The Giants, as we speak, are down 7-2 in the 7th inning, and show no signs of a mounting a late-inning comeback. The man most responsible for the Giants' current deficit is 29-year-old rookie Matt Palmer, a guy who has toiled in the Giants system for a good seven years before finally getting a shot in the bigs thanks to the injury to Jonathan Sanchez.
Palmer is a guy who struck out more than a batter an inning this year at AAA, but I have to ask how, because from what I've heard on the radio broadcasts it seems he's like just a finesse pitcher. Maybe I've heard wrong and he throws 100 mph, I don't know. He also showed zero control in the minors this year, walking 70 batters in 135 innings, and shaky control in the minor leagues usually means that things turn very ugly in the majors. Case in point: after tonight's debacle Palmer has now walked 13 batters in three starts.
Of course, no one really expected Palmer to be good, and with Sanchez expected to come back for his next start, this is most likely his last start this season, and quite possibly the last appearance he'll ever make in the major leagues. Palmer is what they call an organizational soldier, and guys like this often don't get many chances to hang around. They're good enough to act as fodder to fill out a AAA roster, but rarely do they get more than one shot to stick with the big club. They'll be brought up to make a spot start or two and then they'll be sent down again to slowly wither away and follow the path of the Miguel del Toros and Brian Coopers and Brian Powells of the world.
Why am I being so frank (and by frank I mean...you know, devastating) about Palmer's bleak outlook? Well, the chances of a pitcher like him actually making the big leagues in the first place aren't good. A lot of guys just hang around forever in AAA and never get that call-up. Well, Palmer's made it, and we should be happy for him. The chances of him being successful? Er, with that command, slim to nonexistent. Still, he can one day tell his grandkids that he pitched in the majors and got his name into the Baseball Encyclopedia, and that's just plain awesome. So let's raise a glass to Matt Palmer, because we probably won't ever see him again.
The A's, on the other hand? Man, that team is just the most dull and boring bunch blahs out there. Not one of their players is exciting, none of their guys can hit, and their pitching staff, while good, is pretty much an assortment of bland lefties. Except for maybe when Jack Cust bats, what with his freakish Three True Outcomes thing, I think I'd rather watch a montage of hideous '80's anti-drug PSAs than watch the A's for any stretch of time. The A's have a good farm system and I'm sure Billy Beane has a master plan, but for now...egad. So that's something you can thank your lucky stars for, fellow Giants fans.
Anyway, I have to do some quick live blogging because I have to get out of here and watch Street Kings before I get charged a late fee. I really don't want to spend an extra five dollars just to find out if Keanu Reeves can carry an urban crime drama all by himself. The Giants, as we speak, are down 7-2 in the 7th inning, and show no signs of a mounting a late-inning comeback. The man most responsible for the Giants' current deficit is 29-year-old rookie Matt Palmer, a guy who has toiled in the Giants system for a good seven years before finally getting a shot in the bigs thanks to the injury to Jonathan Sanchez.
Palmer is a guy who struck out more than a batter an inning this year at AAA, but I have to ask how, because from what I've heard on the radio broadcasts it seems he's like just a finesse pitcher. Maybe I've heard wrong and he throws 100 mph, I don't know. He also showed zero control in the minors this year, walking 70 batters in 135 innings, and shaky control in the minor leagues usually means that things turn very ugly in the majors. Case in point: after tonight's debacle Palmer has now walked 13 batters in three starts.
Of course, no one really expected Palmer to be good, and with Sanchez expected to come back for his next start, this is most likely his last start this season, and quite possibly the last appearance he'll ever make in the major leagues. Palmer is what they call an organizational soldier, and guys like this often don't get many chances to hang around. They're good enough to act as fodder to fill out a AAA roster, but rarely do they get more than one shot to stick with the big club. They'll be brought up to make a spot start or two and then they'll be sent down again to slowly wither away and follow the path of the Miguel del Toros and Brian Coopers and Brian Powells of the world.
Why am I being so frank (and by frank I mean...you know, devastating) about Palmer's bleak outlook? Well, the chances of a pitcher like him actually making the big leagues in the first place aren't good. A lot of guys just hang around forever in AAA and never get that call-up. Well, Palmer's made it, and we should be happy for him. The chances of him being successful? Er, with that command, slim to nonexistent. Still, he can one day tell his grandkids that he pitched in the majors and got his name into the Baseball Encyclopedia, and that's just plain awesome. So let's raise a glass to Matt Palmer, because we probably won't ever see him again.
Labels: matt palmer, oakland a's, obligatory nerdy simpsons reference, organizational soldiers
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Defensive Musings
On his immensely popular (and awesome) site Baseball Musings, David Pinto has released the 2007 results for a defensive metric he concocted called "Probabilistic Model of Range", which, in short, tries to determine how many outs a fielder made on the year as opposed to the amount of outs he was supposed to make. You'd best follow that link above to get a coherent explanation of how it's devised, because you ain't gettin' one here, but trust me, it really is a neat tool.
Basically, the way it works, if this studly and very handsome center fielder named Paul Rice is expected, based on several factors picked from play-by-play data, to make 150 outs on the season, and he makes 200, he's a pretty damn good fielder, because he's made way more plays than you'd have any right to predict. If he makes only 100 out of 150 predicted outs, he'll grow a creepy mustache and call himself "Benard".
Pinto puts the difference into a ratio. If a player is over 100 (i.e. a 1:1 ratio), he's a pretty good fielder. If he's under 100, he isn't making as many outs as he "should" be making, and thus probably lacks range or just sucks in some general fashion. The metric can work for teams as well as individual players.
Let's check out the 2007 rankings for shortstops, right on the heels of the Omar Vizquel signing. Vizquel ranks tenth among all shortstops with a rating of 101.25, meaning that he was pretty good, but not too far above average. You can sort of argue that this might be Omar's reputation in a nutshell. Many statheads have argued that Vizquel, while he makes the eye-popping highlight reel plays all the time, is merely good at making the routine plays, not great. Thus, while awesome to watch, the numbers would seem to say that he's merely a pretty good shortstop as opposed to a frabulous, grabulous, zip-zoop-zabulous one.
If Vizquel really isn't as great as he seems, then it only gives more weight to the naysayers who are ripping his new contract. If you're paying for a no-hit defensive specialist who isn't that fantastic with the glove after all, then what are you getting? A black hole?
The rank is a little disappointing, I suppose, but I'm not really worried too much. Vizquel's rating is still pretty darn good, and he is fun to watch. And hey, it's not like he's Derek Jeter out there or anything (bottom of the list...yikes!). Christina Kahrl of BP defended the Vizquel signing here, essentially saying that $5 mil isn't much to pay for one or two years of solid defense that could make those quality young arms the Giants have that much better. Plus, you never know, Vizquel could bring that bat back to respectability and then no one would be bitching about the Giants bringing him back.
I guess my original opinion on the matter is the same. I'm always of the "offense first, worry about defense second" philosophy, and this signing would seem to conflict with that, but this is not going to be an albatross contract, so if he sucks it's not going to hamstring the team. I would also have loved to see the team be a little more creative in filling that shortstop gap, but there really aren't many appealing options elsewhere and Brian Sabean hasn't done anything imaginative in years. Hell, if Omar can continue to help keep Noah Lowry's horrid peripheral stats from eating him alive, who can argue?
-Also check out the ratings on Baseball Musings for third basemen and second basemen. Pinto's results show that Pedro Feliz was indeed one of the best (if not the best) as I'd talked about last week. They also show Ray Durham to be one of the worst fielders in the majors at second base, which, if accurate, probably makes poor Ray-Ray the worst everyday player in baseball in '07, except maybe for the lovably execrable Nick Punto.
Basically, the way it works, if this studly and very handsome center fielder named Paul Rice is expected, based on several factors picked from play-by-play data, to make 150 outs on the season, and he makes 200, he's a pretty damn good fielder, because he's made way more plays than you'd have any right to predict. If he makes only 100 out of 150 predicted outs, he'll grow a creepy mustache and call himself "Benard".
Pinto puts the difference into a ratio. If a player is over 100 (i.e. a 1:1 ratio), he's a pretty good fielder. If he's under 100, he isn't making as many outs as he "should" be making, and thus probably lacks range or just sucks in some general fashion. The metric can work for teams as well as individual players.
Let's check out the 2007 rankings for shortstops, right on the heels of the Omar Vizquel signing. Vizquel ranks tenth among all shortstops with a rating of 101.25, meaning that he was pretty good, but not too far above average. You can sort of argue that this might be Omar's reputation in a nutshell. Many statheads have argued that Vizquel, while he makes the eye-popping highlight reel plays all the time, is merely good at making the routine plays, not great. Thus, while awesome to watch, the numbers would seem to say that he's merely a pretty good shortstop as opposed to a frabulous, grabulous, zip-zoop-zabulous one.
If Vizquel really isn't as great as he seems, then it only gives more weight to the naysayers who are ripping his new contract. If you're paying for a no-hit defensive specialist who isn't that fantastic with the glove after all, then what are you getting? A black hole?
The rank is a little disappointing, I suppose, but I'm not really worried too much. Vizquel's rating is still pretty darn good, and he is fun to watch. And hey, it's not like he's Derek Jeter out there or anything (bottom of the list...yikes!). Christina Kahrl of BP defended the Vizquel signing here, essentially saying that $5 mil isn't much to pay for one or two years of solid defense that could make those quality young arms the Giants have that much better. Plus, you never know, Vizquel could bring that bat back to respectability and then no one would be bitching about the Giants bringing him back.
I guess my original opinion on the matter is the same. I'm always of the "offense first, worry about defense second" philosophy, and this signing would seem to conflict with that, but this is not going to be an albatross contract, so if he sucks it's not going to hamstring the team. I would also have loved to see the team be a little more creative in filling that shortstop gap, but there really aren't many appealing options elsewhere and Brian Sabean hasn't done anything imaginative in years. Hell, if Omar can continue to help keep Noah Lowry's horrid peripheral stats from eating him alive, who can argue?
-Also check out the ratings on Baseball Musings for third basemen and second basemen. Pinto's results show that Pedro Feliz was indeed one of the best (if not the best) as I'd talked about last week. They also show Ray Durham to be one of the worst fielders in the majors at second base, which, if accurate, probably makes poor Ray-Ray the worst everyday player in baseball in '07, except maybe for the lovably execrable Nick Punto.
Labels: defense, obligatory nerdy simpsons reference, omar vizquel
