Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Stankeye Award Picks
I was all ready with a big rant about how I really don't care at all about award voting in major league baseball, then I realized that I was about to follow up said rant with my own picks for who should win each postseason award, so I guess that means I care a little. Still, the BBWAA voting on these things is just amazingly idiotic. Only a boob would think that Ryan Howard belongs anywhere near the same conversation as Albert Pujols, but somehow he's a favorite.
But, wait! Howard had 146 RBIs! He's mad clutch! Yes, this is why I've stopped caring about who wins MVP and whatnot. If the majority of voters can't figure out that the reason Howard has so many RBIs is that he has three players who are better than he is getting on base for him all the time, the whole voting process is just worthless.
And don't even get me started on the whole MVP-should-be-from-a-winning-team bullshit. I love how the voters use the "if his team sucks, how valuable can he be?" moron-speak to justify not voting for a guy on a losing team who is clearly more valuable than their pet player. Newsflash: No matter how great a player is, he can't help it if the pitching sucks and the hitters around him are garbage. According to this logic, if you put Josh Hamilton on the White Sox instead of Carlos Quentin they would be a losing team and would miss the playoffs.
Ugh, see what this award voting stuff does to me? It gets me riled up, and I'm a laid-back, even-keeled guy! It's just that when I have to open the paper and see Bartolo Colon winning a Cy Young or Justin Morneau winning the MVP, it makes me turn green and go on an unstoppable rampage. Paulie smash! Any-hoo, here are my personal MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year picks, along with who I think will actually get the award.
NL MVP
Who Should Win: Albert Pujols
Pujols was ridiculous this season, leading the league in OPS, total bases, OPS+, VORP, and finishing second or close to the top in just about every other offensive category. His .357/.462./653 line is like something you'd see on the back of Barry Bonds' baseball card. He walked 104 times against just 54 strikeouts! Do you have any idea how crazy that is? Add all that to the fact that he's a tremendous fielder at his position and I think he's far and away the best player in the NL.
Who Will Win: Pujols
Maybe I'm giving the BBWAA too much credit here, but I can't believe even that collection of relics can screw this up. Even though Howard has the lead in homers and has the huge, shiny RBI total, I think enough voters will be put off by the low average and high strikeout totals that common sense will prevail and Pujols will win the award. The fact that the Cardinals were in playoff contention for most of the year will help Pujols's cause as well. Then again, never underestimate a sportswriter's lack of intelligent thought process.
AL MVP
Who Should Win: Joe Mauer
This is sort of a controversial vote, as there are a lot of viable candidates, but I think the hardware should go to Mauer. He plays the toughest position on the diamond at a Gold Glove caliber and led the AL in hitting while doing it. He's just one hell of a hitter, with a .328/.415/.453 line, and he led all catchers in VORP and OBP. Plus, my uncle says I look exactly like him, which gives him extra points in my book. His counting stats, though, probably won't be sexy enough in the voters' minds to give him the award, which is also what killed his MVP chances in 2006.
Who Will Win: Dustin Pedroia
I'd have chosen Morneau if the Twins had made the playoffs, but they didn't, so thankfully we'll most likely be spared that retarded pick. As for Pedroia, the media loves those small, scrappy white guys who supposedly play above their talent, so he'll probably win since he makes a good story. That's not to say he didn't have a great year. He was awesome, hitting .326/.376/.493 and playing a tough defensive position well. I think there are better candidates, but if Pedroia does win, I won't have any quibble.
NL Cy Young
Who Should Win: Tim Lincecum
Duh. He was second in ERA, first in strikeouts by a wide margin, and just an unhittable force all year long. Another point in his favor, as a poster on McCovey Chronicles pointed out, is that he didn't get to face the Giants' lineup at all.
Who Will Win: Lincecum
Again, perhaps I'm giving the writers too much credit, but I think even they can look past Brandon Webb's 22 wins and see that Lincecum was a much better pitcher. Then again, we did get Colon over Johan Santana because of this same stupid thinking in 2005, so maybe I shouldn't get my hopes up.
AL Cy Young
Who Should Win: Roy Halladay
Who Will Win: Cliff Lee
I was going to give my vote to Lee, but upon further review, Halladay was a monster this season. He faced tougher competition than Lee, pitched more innings, and had a lower WHIP, which is a better indicator of individual performance than ERA. I was also all ready to fawn over Lee's K/BB ratio, but Halladay's is even better. Still, Lee has that eye-popping 22-3 record and that should get him the Cy.
Side note: If Francisco Rodriguez wins the AL Cy Young or, even worse, the MVP, which is a very real possibility, I'm denouncing baseball and moving to Nepal to become one of those monks who protect Yeti scalps.
NL Rookie of the Year
Who Should Win: Geovany Soto
Who Will Win: Soto
Just a no-brainer. The rookie catcher OPSed .868 and was a major reason the Cubs blew away the competition in the NL Central.
AL Rookie of the Year
Who Should Win: Evan Longoria
Who Will Win: Longoria
Another easy pick. Perhaps Alexei Ramirez will pick up some idiot votes and make it close, but Longoria's 27 homers and .874 OPS, coupled with his amazing glove, make him the clear winner.
But, wait! Howard had 146 RBIs! He's mad clutch! Yes, this is why I've stopped caring about who wins MVP and whatnot. If the majority of voters can't figure out that the reason Howard has so many RBIs is that he has three players who are better than he is getting on base for him all the time, the whole voting process is just worthless.
And don't even get me started on the whole MVP-should-be-from-a-winning-team bullshit. I love how the voters use the "if his team sucks, how valuable can he be?" moron-speak to justify not voting for a guy on a losing team who is clearly more valuable than their pet player. Newsflash: No matter how great a player is, he can't help it if the pitching sucks and the hitters around him are garbage. According to this logic, if you put Josh Hamilton on the White Sox instead of Carlos Quentin they would be a losing team and would miss the playoffs.
Ugh, see what this award voting stuff does to me? It gets me riled up, and I'm a laid-back, even-keeled guy! It's just that when I have to open the paper and see Bartolo Colon winning a Cy Young or Justin Morneau winning the MVP, it makes me turn green and go on an unstoppable rampage. Paulie smash! Any-hoo, here are my personal MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year picks, along with who I think will actually get the award.
NL MVP
Who Should Win: Albert Pujols
Pujols was ridiculous this season, leading the league in OPS, total bases, OPS+, VORP, and finishing second or close to the top in just about every other offensive category. His .357/.462./653 line is like something you'd see on the back of Barry Bonds' baseball card. He walked 104 times against just 54 strikeouts! Do you have any idea how crazy that is? Add all that to the fact that he's a tremendous fielder at his position and I think he's far and away the best player in the NL.
Who Will Win: Pujols
Maybe I'm giving the BBWAA too much credit here, but I can't believe even that collection of relics can screw this up. Even though Howard has the lead in homers and has the huge, shiny RBI total, I think enough voters will be put off by the low average and high strikeout totals that common sense will prevail and Pujols will win the award. The fact that the Cardinals were in playoff contention for most of the year will help Pujols's cause as well. Then again, never underestimate a sportswriter's lack of intelligent thought process.
AL MVP
Who Should Win: Joe Mauer
This is sort of a controversial vote, as there are a lot of viable candidates, but I think the hardware should go to Mauer. He plays the toughest position on the diamond at a Gold Glove caliber and led the AL in hitting while doing it. He's just one hell of a hitter, with a .328/.415/.453 line, and he led all catchers in VORP and OBP. Plus, my uncle says I look exactly like him, which gives him extra points in my book. His counting stats, though, probably won't be sexy enough in the voters' minds to give him the award, which is also what killed his MVP chances in 2006.
Who Will Win: Dustin Pedroia
I'd have chosen Morneau if the Twins had made the playoffs, but they didn't, so thankfully we'll most likely be spared that retarded pick. As for Pedroia, the media loves those small, scrappy white guys who supposedly play above their talent, so he'll probably win since he makes a good story. That's not to say he didn't have a great year. He was awesome, hitting .326/.376/.493 and playing a tough defensive position well. I think there are better candidates, but if Pedroia does win, I won't have any quibble.
NL Cy Young
Who Should Win: Tim Lincecum
Duh. He was second in ERA, first in strikeouts by a wide margin, and just an unhittable force all year long. Another point in his favor, as a poster on McCovey Chronicles pointed out, is that he didn't get to face the Giants' lineup at all.
Who Will Win: Lincecum
Again, perhaps I'm giving the writers too much credit, but I think even they can look past Brandon Webb's 22 wins and see that Lincecum was a much better pitcher. Then again, we did get Colon over Johan Santana because of this same stupid thinking in 2005, so maybe I shouldn't get my hopes up.
AL Cy Young
Who Should Win: Roy Halladay
Who Will Win: Cliff Lee
I was going to give my vote to Lee, but upon further review, Halladay was a monster this season. He faced tougher competition than Lee, pitched more innings, and had a lower WHIP, which is a better indicator of individual performance than ERA. I was also all ready to fawn over Lee's K/BB ratio, but Halladay's is even better. Still, Lee has that eye-popping 22-3 record and that should get him the Cy.
Side note: If Francisco Rodriguez wins the AL Cy Young or, even worse, the MVP, which is a very real possibility, I'm denouncing baseball and moving to Nepal to become one of those monks who protect Yeti scalps.
NL Rookie of the Year
Who Should Win: Geovany Soto
Who Will Win: Soto
Just a no-brainer. The rookie catcher OPSed .868 and was a major reason the Cubs blew away the competition in the NL Central.
AL Rookie of the Year
Who Should Win: Evan Longoria
Who Will Win: Longoria
Another easy pick. Perhaps Alexei Ramirez will pick up some idiot votes and make it close, but Longoria's 27 homers and .874 OPS, coupled with his amazing glove, make him the clear winner.
Labels: bad predictions, stupid award voting, Tim Lincecum
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
Tim Lincecum Vs. the Frightfully Outdated Methods of Performance Analysis
Quick story for you. This past Sunday I was in Berkeley for the Dave Matthews Band concert at the Greek Theater, a show that just kicked all kinds of ass. At one point during the opening act I left my seat to make a restroom run. As I was getting in the ridiculously long line for the men's room, I accidentally bumped shoulders with another guy my age as he passed by in the other direction. When I looked up I recognized him as Noah Lowry. Now, as much as I would have loved to have introduced myself and talked to Lowry, I didn't. Two reasons: 1) I was drunk, and 2) I'm not sure where drunkenly accosting a complete stranger while standing in line to take a piss ranks on the weirdness scale, but I imagine it's pretty high.
If I had spoken to Lowry I would have definitely wished him good luck and a speedy return to the mound. While he probably won't pitch at all this year, he's slated to throw in Winter Ball and be back in the rotation in 2009, hopefully in place of the increasingly awful Kevin Correia. In a perfect world, Lowry regains the bite on his changeup and puts together a year more like 2005 than 2006 or 2007. If Jonathan Sanchez can build on the promise he's shown and if Zito (who, as we speak, has just finished six terrific innings) can be average-ish, then the Giants should have one hell of a rotation. Hopefully the nerve problem that sidelined Lowry all year was the cause of his one ghastly start in the spring and he won't be doing Nuke Laloosh impressions the next time we see him. Hopefully he also enjoyed the amazing DMB version of The Maker as much as I did.
--If I had bumped into Tim Lincecum instead of Lowry, not only would I have gone out of my way to shake his hand, but I'd likely have bowed to him and chanted "I'm not worthy!" Geez, how good is this kid? Another dominating start has put his record at 16-3, and he leads the National League in pretty much every category that matters. He should, should, be the odds-on favorite to win the Cy Young, but sadly a lot of writers still stick to the sad, old-timey belief that pitching wins are a true determinant of pitching performance, and thus Lincecum is in a neck-and-neck battle with Brandon Webb, who has 19 such wins.
Even adjusting for ballpark, Lincecum kicks Webb's butt in just about every category (his ERA+ is almost 40 points higher). If this disparity in performance holds up, it'll be a crime if Lincecum doesn't win. I've said before that most of the major award voting is a sham (don't even get me started on the Gold Gloves) and normally the writers give out the awards to the best story instead of the best player. Just the fact that Carlos Delgado is even in the MVP conversation serves to illustrate how far the insanity has gone. When the BBWAA completely fucked up and gave Bartolo Colon the Cy over Johan Santana in 2005, based on Colon's 20 wins, I just stopped taking this stuff seriously.
However, when a Giants player becomes involved, I'm forced to care again. The Giants haven't had a Cy Young winner since 1967 when Mike McCormick won it, so it's been a long enough wait. Jason Schmidt was robbed of the Cy in 2003, and that pissed us all off royally, but this season if Lincecum loses it'll be an even more egregious snub. If the writers can't even recognize the (far and away) best pitcher in the league then they should just scrap the Cy Young. Seriously.
If I had spoken to Lowry I would have definitely wished him good luck and a speedy return to the mound. While he probably won't pitch at all this year, he's slated to throw in Winter Ball and be back in the rotation in 2009, hopefully in place of the increasingly awful Kevin Correia. In a perfect world, Lowry regains the bite on his changeup and puts together a year more like 2005 than 2006 or 2007. If Jonathan Sanchez can build on the promise he's shown and if Zito (who, as we speak, has just finished six terrific innings) can be average-ish, then the Giants should have one hell of a rotation. Hopefully the nerve problem that sidelined Lowry all year was the cause of his one ghastly start in the spring and he won't be doing Nuke Laloosh impressions the next time we see him. Hopefully he also enjoyed the amazing DMB version of The Maker as much as I did.
--If I had bumped into Tim Lincecum instead of Lowry, not only would I have gone out of my way to shake his hand, but I'd likely have bowed to him and chanted "I'm not worthy!" Geez, how good is this kid? Another dominating start has put his record at 16-3, and he leads the National League in pretty much every category that matters. He should, should, be the odds-on favorite to win the Cy Young, but sadly a lot of writers still stick to the sad, old-timey belief that pitching wins are a true determinant of pitching performance, and thus Lincecum is in a neck-and-neck battle with Brandon Webb, who has 19 such wins.
Even adjusting for ballpark, Lincecum kicks Webb's butt in just about every category (his ERA+ is almost 40 points higher). If this disparity in performance holds up, it'll be a crime if Lincecum doesn't win. I've said before that most of the major award voting is a sham (don't even get me started on the Gold Gloves) and normally the writers give out the awards to the best story instead of the best player. Just the fact that Carlos Delgado is even in the MVP conversation serves to illustrate how far the insanity has gone. When the BBWAA completely fucked up and gave Bartolo Colon the Cy over Johan Santana in 2005, based on Colon's 20 wins, I just stopped taking this stuff seriously.
However, when a Giants player becomes involved, I'm forced to care again. The Giants haven't had a Cy Young winner since 1967 when Mike McCormick won it, so it's been a long enough wait. Jason Schmidt was robbed of the Cy in 2003, and that pissed us all off royally, but this season if Lincecum loses it'll be an even more egregious snub. If the writers can't even recognize the (far and away) best pitcher in the league then they should just scrap the Cy Young. Seriously.
Labels: noah lowry, stupid award voting, Tim Lincecum
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
From the Files of WTF!: MVP Voting Hijinks
The postseason award balloting this year thankfully stayed safely on the side of sanity. There were no egregious mistakes like Bartolo Colon winning the Cy Young over Johan Santana in 2005 or Justin Morneau winning it over like five other, more deserving candidates in 2006. I've already detailed why the Gold Glove awards are a joke, but pretty much all of the other winners of the (legitimate, or at least relatively so) awards were clearly deserving.
The only questionable pick was probably Jimmy Rollins for NL MVP. David Wright seemed like a more deserving pick, as he was a better player and put up better numbers in a much tougher park on hitters, and you can make the argument that Rollins wasn't even the MVP of his own team. Wright was also unquestionably hurt by the Mets' late-season choke job (a couple of tards even left Wright completely off the ballot), but Rollins did have a monster year and his selection certainly wasn't an outrage. Plus, he gets bonus points for his brash playoff guarantee way back in the spring, channeling Kirk Gibson's 1988 pre-season tantrum that basically got him a totally undeserved MVP (somewhere Darryl Strawberry cries).
No, the only real bit of idiocy from this season's award vote came out of the AL MVP race. Alex Rodriguez, of course, was far and away the most deserving winner. No question about that. No one could touch him, and yet two misguided souls somehow found a way to give Magglio Ordonez their first place votes. Now, don't get me wrong, Magglio was awesome this season, but how could anybody be so frigging blind to the simple numbers? Just check it out, and we don't even need those fancy-pants BP stats to demonstrate why A-Rod was so superior.
A-Rod: .314/.422/.645 177 OPS+
Magglio: .363 /.434 /.595 167 OPS+
Rodriguez has ten points of OPS+ on Ordonez, he bombed 26 more homers, knocked in 17 more runs, scored 26 more runs, played a somewhat tougher position, and even threw in 24 stolen bases, for what that's worth. And this is before breaking out the VORPs and WARPs and MLVRs that we dorks all cherish. Trust me, you adle-brained Magglio voters, you don't want to go there.
The two writers who voted for Ordonez were from Detroit, which I guess explains it. Maybe they also held the typical "unclutch A-Rod" grudge and thought he was putting up empty numbers, or maybe they just had some sort of brain lesion that prevents a person from determining what makes one player more valuable than another. I guess you could justify their vote by saying that Rodriguez had better hitters around him, and thus got better pitches to hit, or that he's won too many MVPs already, or...um...
Nah, they just fucked up.
The only questionable pick was probably Jimmy Rollins for NL MVP. David Wright seemed like a more deserving pick, as he was a better player and put up better numbers in a much tougher park on hitters, and you can make the argument that Rollins wasn't even the MVP of his own team. Wright was also unquestionably hurt by the Mets' late-season choke job (a couple of tards even left Wright completely off the ballot), but Rollins did have a monster year and his selection certainly wasn't an outrage. Plus, he gets bonus points for his brash playoff guarantee way back in the spring, channeling Kirk Gibson's 1988 pre-season tantrum that basically got him a totally undeserved MVP (somewhere Darryl Strawberry cries).
No, the only real bit of idiocy from this season's award vote came out of the AL MVP race. Alex Rodriguez, of course, was far and away the most deserving winner. No question about that. No one could touch him, and yet two misguided souls somehow found a way to give Magglio Ordonez their first place votes. Now, don't get me wrong, Magglio was awesome this season, but how could anybody be so frigging blind to the simple numbers? Just check it out, and we don't even need those fancy-pants BP stats to demonstrate why A-Rod was so superior.
A-Rod: .314/.422/.645 177 OPS+
Magglio: .363 /.434 /.595 167 OPS+
Rodriguez has ten points of OPS+ on Ordonez, he bombed 26 more homers, knocked in 17 more runs, scored 26 more runs, played a somewhat tougher position, and even threw in 24 stolen bases, for what that's worth. And this is before breaking out the VORPs and WARPs and MLVRs that we dorks all cherish. Trust me, you adle-brained Magglio voters, you don't want to go there.
The two writers who voted for Ordonez were from Detroit, which I guess explains it. Maybe they also held the typical "unclutch A-Rod" grudge and thought he was putting up empty numbers, or maybe they just had some sort of brain lesion that prevents a person from determining what makes one player more valuable than another. I guess you could justify their vote by saying that Rodriguez had better hitters around him, and thus got better pitches to hit, or that he's won too many MVPs already, or...um...
Nah, they just fucked up.
Labels: from the files of wtf, stupid award voting
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Robbed
I'm going to do it again. I'm going to defend Pedro Feliz. Lock up your children, chain down your pets, 'cause this is going to get ugly. I know, I know, I should be ashamed of myself, but I believe in justice, even if it means I have to go to the mat for one of the most abominable players in all of baseball.
Yesterday the Gold Gloves winners were announced in each league, with the usual spate of horrid picks mixed in with some deserving winners. Rob Neyer breaks it down succinctly here. Truthfully, I stopped giving a crap about this award several years ago. Nobody knows who to vote for, and if the voters on these things don't care enough to do even a cursory bit of research (at least enough to realize that Derek Jeter isn't anywhere near the top fielding shortstop), then why should we care who wins?
Generally, the coaches and managers just give the awards to star players or players who have won several times before. No-hit/all glove types on bad teams rarely get any love, even though they're often the most deserving. The past few years, Houston's Adam Everett has been the best fielding shortstop in the majors, and it hasn't even been close, and yet he hasn't even gotten a sniff from the voters, who decided that since Omar Vizquel had won it a bunch of times he must still be the best (sorry, Omar). Kansas City's Tony Pena could make a great case for the best fielding AL shortstop this year, but nobody's ever heard of him and he can't hit, so TS, Tony.
That brings us to Feliz, a horrible hitter on a bad Giants team, but yet who in 2007 was a fantastic fielder. As I noted here a few months ago, Feliz ranks as the very best third baseman by any metric. Usually all of the fielding numbers, both old school and newfangled, tend to disagree, but when they all point conclusively to one outcome, that Feliz is the man, chances are the stats aren't playing tricks with you. Sadly, he lost out to David Wright, who I'm sure can pick it, but the numbers say it all. Hell, even my eyes could see it. Feliz looked stellar this year.
So a big giant whiff for the Gold Glove voters, but it's nothing new. Again, I stopped caring about this a while ago, but it really would be nice to see a guy who is so clearly head and shoulders above everybody else at least get some recognition from the people who are supposedly watching him day in, day out..
Feliz takes a lot of shit on this blog, and deservedly so, but I also believe in a sense of fairness, and this is just not right. Some people still do take the Gold Gloves seriously, so let history show that poor Pedro got snubbed.
--I should point out that, no, Mr. Sabean, I am not campaigning for Feliz to be brought back, and this talk I hear of a 2 year/$8 million deal gives me the urge to run and bow before the porcelain god. I appreciate Feliz's glove, really I do, but it's not enough to make up for his hideous bat. Nothing is.
See, I ended this post on a Feliz-bashing note. I'm not getting soft after all.
Yesterday the Gold Gloves winners were announced in each league, with the usual spate of horrid picks mixed in with some deserving winners. Rob Neyer breaks it down succinctly here. Truthfully, I stopped giving a crap about this award several years ago. Nobody knows who to vote for, and if the voters on these things don't care enough to do even a cursory bit of research (at least enough to realize that Derek Jeter isn't anywhere near the top fielding shortstop), then why should we care who wins?
Generally, the coaches and managers just give the awards to star players or players who have won several times before. No-hit/all glove types on bad teams rarely get any love, even though they're often the most deserving. The past few years, Houston's Adam Everett has been the best fielding shortstop in the majors, and it hasn't even been close, and yet he hasn't even gotten a sniff from the voters, who decided that since Omar Vizquel had won it a bunch of times he must still be the best (sorry, Omar). Kansas City's Tony Pena could make a great case for the best fielding AL shortstop this year, but nobody's ever heard of him and he can't hit, so TS, Tony.
That brings us to Feliz, a horrible hitter on a bad Giants team, but yet who in 2007 was a fantastic fielder. As I noted here a few months ago, Feliz ranks as the very best third baseman by any metric. Usually all of the fielding numbers, both old school and newfangled, tend to disagree, but when they all point conclusively to one outcome, that Feliz is the man, chances are the stats aren't playing tricks with you. Sadly, he lost out to David Wright, who I'm sure can pick it, but the numbers say it all. Hell, even my eyes could see it. Feliz looked stellar this year.
So a big giant whiff for the Gold Glove voters, but it's nothing new. Again, I stopped caring about this a while ago, but it really would be nice to see a guy who is so clearly head and shoulders above everybody else at least get some recognition from the people who are supposedly watching him day in, day out..
Feliz takes a lot of shit on this blog, and deservedly so, but I also believe in a sense of fairness, and this is just not right. Some people still do take the Gold Gloves seriously, so let history show that poor Pedro got snubbed.
--I should point out that, no, Mr. Sabean, I am not campaigning for Feliz to be brought back, and this talk I hear of a 2 year/$8 million deal gives me the urge to run and bow before the porcelain god. I appreciate Feliz's glove, really I do, but it's not enough to make up for his hideous bat. Nothing is.
See, I ended this post on a Feliz-bashing note. I'm not getting soft after all.
Labels: happy pete, stupid award voting
