Tuesday, April 01, 2008
2008 NL West Predictions
I was going to toss up my old friend, the Bad Zito pic, up for this post, but Zito actually didn't pitch too terribly. He settled down after one bad inning and kept the Giants in the game, although that's relatively speaking considering their offense. Zito didn't look like the complete mess he was in the spring, but the barrage of 84-mph fastballs portends a loooooong Year 2 of 7.
As for the rest of Opening Day, let's just all agree that the Giants played like hraka and move on with our lives. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum go in the next two games, providing us with the morphine in what could be an otherwise unbearably painful season.
On with the hilariously inaccurate NL West projections!
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dbacks gave all of us Pythagorean Record nazis the middle finger last year by rolling to the NL West title despite being outscored considerably by their opponents. They won’t be doing it again this year though, because they should be able to put up a positive run differential with all of the talent on hand and win the division without turning the sabermetric world on its head.
When you essentially swap Livan Hernandez for Dan Haren, brother, that’s an upgrade (and not just on the money saved from the post-game buffet…zing!). With the Webb-Haren one-two punch and a lineup full of still-developing young hitters (a couple of whom should break out this season…I’m looking at you Chris Young), they look to be the class of a very tough division for the second straight year.
2. San Diego Padres
I always consider the Padres an ally of sorts to Giants in the NL West, kind of like Great Britain to the Giants’ USA. The Dodgers are the Dodgers, the Dbacks still have that bitter rivalry aftertaste from the Schilling-Johnson years, and the Rockies permanently dropped out of the Giants’ good graces by going 0-15 against the Braves in 1993. The Padres, though, have always seemed kind of innocuous, and their GM, Kevin Towers, always seems to have something good to say about the Giant organization. They have a beautiful park, I had tons of fun rooting for them against the Red Sox at a game I attended in San Diego last year, and they’re one of the best-run organizations in the league. I guess if the Giants can’t win the West, here’s hoping the Padres do.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
It should be fun for all of us Giants fans watching Ned Colletti completely undermine all the good work Paul DePodesta did as the Dodger GM by squashing the young talent in favor of overpriced and awful veterans. While it sadly looks as though Juan Pierre will be rightly nailed to the bench to start the year, as long as he has his clueless defenders in the media, there’s still hope that he’ll get enough at-bats to crush the Dodgers' title hopes. And of course there’s always Nomar Garciaparra around to keep Andy Laroche from ever turning himself into something.
Truth be told, there’s far too much talent here and even Colletti can’t single-handedly run it all into the ground. The system is rich in pitching (Clayton Kershaw could be amazing) and they have an enviable collection of young, major league-ready position players. The Dodgers are probably the favorites to come out of the West if they just let the young guys play, but I have no confidence whatsoever that they’ll do so.
4. Colorado Rockies
On a strange little web site I created a few years ago (Geocities took down the page...grr) while watching my friend’s dog (yeah, long story), I went on a mini-rant while predicting the Rockies’ finish for the 2004 season. I stated that as long as they played in Colorado they’d never make the World Series. My thinking was that since they had to tailor their team to succeed in such an extreme hitting environment, that team would conversely not be able to compete in normal environments on the road. I was adamant, convinced of my own authority on the subject, and I used a lot of exclamation points.
Four years later, the Rockies are defending a pennant, and I look like an ass. In my defense, Coors Field is no longer the crazy hitters park that it used to be, and do you know why? They cut the grass! No joke. Maybe they hired one of those mystical lawnmower men from the Stephen King universe (er, not the virtual reality simpleton, though).
I’m not particularly impressed by the Rockies’ pitching compared to the rest of the division, but they have a wonderful defensive unit and a stud hitter in Matt Holliday, so who knows? The top four teams in the NL West are all so good that any of these picks could be flip-flopped, and any of these teams could make a serious claim as the best in the division. How’s that for writer ass-covering?
5. San Francisco Giants
You see what I’m doing here? Every time I’ve done predictions for the NL West on this blog, I’ve chosen the Giants to finish first, and each time they’ve finished down in the pack. So by using the Reverse Jinx Protocol, I’m going to ensure that the Giants do, in fact, win the division this season. After all, success in baseball doesn’t really come down to talent on the field. It really depends on the predictions of a tired blogger frantically churning out a season preview in his boxer shorts at 11:00 the night before the season starts.
Yes, the Giants will probably be horrible this year and hanging all hopes on the RJP is likely fruitless in the face of a front office that is woefully ill-suited to righting this nearly-sunken ship. I guess if we can’t have the delusions of competition that worked out so well in 1997, we still have…Bocock!
As for the rest of Opening Day, let's just all agree that the Giants played like hraka and move on with our lives. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum go in the next two games, providing us with the morphine in what could be an otherwise unbearably painful season.
On with the hilariously inaccurate NL West projections!
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dbacks gave all of us Pythagorean Record nazis the middle finger last year by rolling to the NL West title despite being outscored considerably by their opponents. They won’t be doing it again this year though, because they should be able to put up a positive run differential with all of the talent on hand and win the division without turning the sabermetric world on its head.
When you essentially swap Livan Hernandez for Dan Haren, brother, that’s an upgrade (and not just on the money saved from the post-game buffet…zing!). With the Webb-Haren one-two punch and a lineup full of still-developing young hitters (a couple of whom should break out this season…I’m looking at you Chris Young), they look to be the class of a very tough division for the second straight year.
2. San Diego Padres
I always consider the Padres an ally of sorts to Giants in the NL West, kind of like Great Britain to the Giants’ USA. The Dodgers are the Dodgers, the Dbacks still have that bitter rivalry aftertaste from the Schilling-Johnson years, and the Rockies permanently dropped out of the Giants’ good graces by going 0-15 against the Braves in 1993. The Padres, though, have always seemed kind of innocuous, and their GM, Kevin Towers, always seems to have something good to say about the Giant organization. They have a beautiful park, I had tons of fun rooting for them against the Red Sox at a game I attended in San Diego last year, and they’re one of the best-run organizations in the league. I guess if the Giants can’t win the West, here’s hoping the Padres do.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
It should be fun for all of us Giants fans watching Ned Colletti completely undermine all the good work Paul DePodesta did as the Dodger GM by squashing the young talent in favor of overpriced and awful veterans. While it sadly looks as though Juan Pierre will be rightly nailed to the bench to start the year, as long as he has his clueless defenders in the media, there’s still hope that he’ll get enough at-bats to crush the Dodgers' title hopes. And of course there’s always Nomar Garciaparra around to keep Andy Laroche from ever turning himself into something.
Truth be told, there’s far too much talent here and even Colletti can’t single-handedly run it all into the ground. The system is rich in pitching (Clayton Kershaw could be amazing) and they have an enviable collection of young, major league-ready position players. The Dodgers are probably the favorites to come out of the West if they just let the young guys play, but I have no confidence whatsoever that they’ll do so.
4. Colorado Rockies
On a strange little web site I created a few years ago (Geocities took down the page...grr) while watching my friend’s dog (yeah, long story), I went on a mini-rant while predicting the Rockies’ finish for the 2004 season. I stated that as long as they played in Colorado they’d never make the World Series. My thinking was that since they had to tailor their team to succeed in such an extreme hitting environment, that team would conversely not be able to compete in normal environments on the road. I was adamant, convinced of my own authority on the subject, and I used a lot of exclamation points.
Four years later, the Rockies are defending a pennant, and I look like an ass. In my defense, Coors Field is no longer the crazy hitters park that it used to be, and do you know why? They cut the grass! No joke. Maybe they hired one of those mystical lawnmower men from the Stephen King universe (er, not the virtual reality simpleton, though).
I’m not particularly impressed by the Rockies’ pitching compared to the rest of the division, but they have a wonderful defensive unit and a stud hitter in Matt Holliday, so who knows? The top four teams in the NL West are all so good that any of these picks could be flip-flopped, and any of these teams could make a serious claim as the best in the division. How’s that for writer ass-covering?
5. San Francisco Giants
You see what I’m doing here? Every time I’ve done predictions for the NL West on this blog, I’ve chosen the Giants to finish first, and each time they’ve finished down in the pack. So by using the Reverse Jinx Protocol, I’m going to ensure that the Giants do, in fact, win the division this season. After all, success in baseball doesn’t really come down to talent on the field. It really depends on the predictions of a tired blogger frantically churning out a season preview in his boxer shorts at 11:00 the night before the season starts.
Yes, the Giants will probably be horrible this year and hanging all hopes on the RJP is likely fruitless in the face of a front office that is woefully ill-suited to righting this nearly-sunken ship. I guess if we can’t have the delusions of competition that worked out so well in 1997, we still have…Bocock!
Labels: bad predictions, offensive anemia
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Channeling the '03 Dodgers
I thought I'd take a quick look at how the newest Giant, Aaron Rowand fits in to the lineup. Here's the 2008 Giants lineup, as I see it, if there are no more moves made to change it between now and the start of the season:
LF Roberts/Davis
3B Frandsen
RF Winn
CF Rowand
C Molina
2B Durham
1B Ortmeier
SS Vizquel
To quote Mr. Creosote, better get a bucket. What's the over/under on runs scored here? 550? Obviously, there's still a lot of time left and I'm sure moves will be made to improve ths squad, but man, it'll still take some sort of miracle to make this offense even respectable.
Personally, I'm excited at Frandsen's prospects; not so much at Ortmeier's. Frandsen's minor league totals indicate that he could at least be a kind of Bill Mueller-type, which would be doubly valuable if the Giants could acquire another third baseman and Frandsen could slide to second in 2009. If there's one thing I really hope that the Giants don't screw up this winter, it's acquiring some veteran chaff to play third base and then have Frandsen rot on the bench some more. One of the few things I'm looking forward to this season is finding out what this guy can do.
As for Ortmeier, the opposite field shots and the Dodger-killing homer were exciting, but a .775 career OPS in the minors doesn't scream success, certainly not at first base. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have the Giants give Ort a chance than dick around with more washed-up zombies like Tony Clark. However, it also doesn't make much sense to just settle on Ortmeier when Dallas McPherson, who has a career .959 minor league OPS (and who I've not-so-realistically thought about trying to get before) is available and can probably be signed for relatively cheap.
As for Rowand's place in this lineup, he's sort of like Bengie Molina in the sense that if he's your number six hitter or something, you're doing pretty well. But your main source of power? Forget it. The biggest problem here is that the Giants have ostensibly replaced a five-win caliber offensive player in Bonds with probably a two-win one in Rowand, and that seems to be a best-case scenario. If the Giants had one of the league's worst offenses with Bonds, how bad is it going to be now, especially with the old guys getting a year older? Matt Cain shudders.
--TGIF video. I have to wait six more months for this? But I want it now!
LF Roberts/Davis
3B Frandsen
RF Winn
CF Rowand
C Molina
2B Durham
1B Ortmeier
SS Vizquel
To quote Mr. Creosote, better get a bucket. What's the over/under on runs scored here? 550? Obviously, there's still a lot of time left and I'm sure moves will be made to improve ths squad, but man, it'll still take some sort of miracle to make this offense even respectable.
Personally, I'm excited at Frandsen's prospects; not so much at Ortmeier's. Frandsen's minor league totals indicate that he could at least be a kind of Bill Mueller-type, which would be doubly valuable if the Giants could acquire another third baseman and Frandsen could slide to second in 2009. If there's one thing I really hope that the Giants don't screw up this winter, it's acquiring some veteran chaff to play third base and then have Frandsen rot on the bench some more. One of the few things I'm looking forward to this season is finding out what this guy can do.
As for Ortmeier, the opposite field shots and the Dodger-killing homer were exciting, but a .775 career OPS in the minors doesn't scream success, certainly not at first base. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have the Giants give Ort a chance than dick around with more washed-up zombies like Tony Clark. However, it also doesn't make much sense to just settle on Ortmeier when Dallas McPherson, who has a career .959 minor league OPS (and who I've not-so-realistically thought about trying to get before) is available and can probably be signed for relatively cheap.
As for Rowand's place in this lineup, he's sort of like Bengie Molina in the sense that if he's your number six hitter or something, you're doing pretty well. But your main source of power? Forget it. The biggest problem here is that the Giants have ostensibly replaced a five-win caliber offensive player in Bonds with probably a two-win one in Rowand, and that seems to be a best-case scenario. If the Giants had one of the league's worst offenses with Bonds, how bad is it going to be now, especially with the old guys getting a year older? Matt Cain shudders.
--TGIF video. I have to wait six more months for this? But I want it now!
Labels: aaron rowand, offensive anemia
Monday, September 17, 2007
Infield of Screams
On Friday I talked a little bit about how awful Omar Vizquel's hitting has been this year, and how I didn't totally grasp the magnitude of his suckiness until I actually went to Baseball Reference and checked the numbers. Due to the Giants' general inability to toss out an entertaining product this season, I've honestly been kind of wavering in and out of interest in the team's numbers for the last month or two.
When I looked at the Giant team page on BR, though, I realized that the problem isn't just isolated to their shortstop. The team's whole infield has been an absolute nightmare. I'm sure all Giants fans are sadly aware of the whole infield unit's struggles at the plate, but really, it's got to be historically bad. Not one player has been above average, and three have been downright abysmal. Here are the gory details, with each starter, his hitting line, and his OPS+:
Ryan Klesko: .265/.349/.413, 97
Ray Durham: .217/.297/.346, 66
Omar Vizquel: .240/.300/.295, 56 (!)
Pedro Feliz: .249/.289/.414, 80
Rich Aurilia: .249/.301/.366, 72
Okay, going into the season we all knew that the Giants' offense would probably stink and that Brian Sabean's loyalty to all things over 35 might come back to bite him in the ass, but to this extent? Look at those numbers again. That's astoundingly bad. That's Lara Croft: Tomb Raider/Armageddon double-feature bad. Forget the youth movement, why the hell are these guys getting at-bats over, like, 30-year old non-prospects like Justin Leone or Scott McClain at this point?
We've discussed Vizquel already, so let's look at these other guys point by point. Klesko's on-base ability still gives him some value, so he hasn't been a total disaster, but his total lack of power is unacceptable at a position where it just isn't that hard to find a slugger. As I've harped about again and again and again, Sabean has just demonstrated an utter lack of imagination in filling the chasm at first base the past few years.
For example, Carlos Pena was DFA'd by the Yankees in the spring, and the Giants could have had him for basically nothing, even less than they're paying Klesko. Instead Sabean was asleep at the wheel. What has Pena done this year? Check for yourself. Perhaps Pena wouldn't have gone bonkers in the same way if he'd been hitting at Mays Field, a tough park on lefty hitters, but come on. Klesko has been decent, but it could have been soooo much better.
Moving on to Durham...I just don't know what to say. Being a leading proponent of his re-signing, I can't criticize Sabean too much here. Durham was awesome in 2006 and was one of the best second baseman in the NL from 2003-2006, so when the Giants got him for reasonable value this winter, it seemed like a very good move.
For whatever reason, though, he's just gone in the tank. Is it age? Injury? Complacency from the new contract? You tell me. I seriously just can't fathom how a guy can go from a line of .293/.360/.538 to the complete disaster we have on our hands now. Since this year is so out of line with his usual performance, and since he isn't that old, I'd say that Durham has to rebound next year. How could it get worse?
Moving on to Feliz...well, my hatred of Pedro is well-documented here. The only question, I guess, is what did Sabean expect when he brought Feliz back this offseason? That he'd magically turn into Matt Williams? We fans pretty much anticipated another year of Felizian helplessness at the plate, and we've been treated to exactly that. Seriously though, if Feliz is the Giants everyday third baseman again next season...well, remember George Brett's reaction when the ump tossed him for having too much pine tar on his bat? Yeah, that'll be me.
Aurilia has been hampered by injuries, but it's hard to really say how much they've affected his hitting. What I do know is that he wasn't much good in 2004, then he did well in a great hitters' park for the 2005 and 2006 seasons, and now he's back in a pitcher's park and he stinks.
Not to beat a dead horse, but this infield ineptness is yet another shining example of Sabean's flawed "proven veterans" philosophy. It was certainly fair to assume that Vizquel, Durham, Klesko, and Aurilia wouldn't be nearly this bad, but when you're dealing with players over age 35 you have to realize that they could crap out at any minute. Some players age well, some don't. So it's totally foolish to rely on such an aged group of players to help a team win, when the risk of them falling apart is so high.
As for Feliz, well, he isn't over 35...he just blows.
When I looked at the Giant team page on BR, though, I realized that the problem isn't just isolated to their shortstop. The team's whole infield has been an absolute nightmare. I'm sure all Giants fans are sadly aware of the whole infield unit's struggles at the plate, but really, it's got to be historically bad. Not one player has been above average, and three have been downright abysmal. Here are the gory details, with each starter, his hitting line, and his OPS+:
Ryan Klesko: .265/.349/.413, 97
Ray Durham: .217/.297/.346, 66
Omar Vizquel: .240/.300/.295, 56 (!)
Pedro Feliz: .249/.289/.414, 80
Rich Aurilia: .249/.301/.366, 72
Okay, going into the season we all knew that the Giants' offense would probably stink and that Brian Sabean's loyalty to all things over 35 might come back to bite him in the ass, but to this extent? Look at those numbers again. That's astoundingly bad. That's Lara Croft: Tomb Raider/Armageddon double-feature bad. Forget the youth movement, why the hell are these guys getting at-bats over, like, 30-year old non-prospects like Justin Leone or Scott McClain at this point?
We've discussed Vizquel already, so let's look at these other guys point by point. Klesko's on-base ability still gives him some value, so he hasn't been a total disaster, but his total lack of power is unacceptable at a position where it just isn't that hard to find a slugger. As I've harped about again and again and again, Sabean has just demonstrated an utter lack of imagination in filling the chasm at first base the past few years.
For example, Carlos Pena was DFA'd by the Yankees in the spring, and the Giants could have had him for basically nothing, even less than they're paying Klesko. Instead Sabean was asleep at the wheel. What has Pena done this year? Check for yourself. Perhaps Pena wouldn't have gone bonkers in the same way if he'd been hitting at Mays Field, a tough park on lefty hitters, but come on. Klesko has been decent, but it could have been soooo much better.
Moving on to Durham...I just don't know what to say. Being a leading proponent of his re-signing, I can't criticize Sabean too much here. Durham was awesome in 2006 and was one of the best second baseman in the NL from 2003-2006, so when the Giants got him for reasonable value this winter, it seemed like a very good move.
For whatever reason, though, he's just gone in the tank. Is it age? Injury? Complacency from the new contract? You tell me. I seriously just can't fathom how a guy can go from a line of .293/.360/.538 to the complete disaster we have on our hands now. Since this year is so out of line with his usual performance, and since he isn't that old, I'd say that Durham has to rebound next year. How could it get worse?
Moving on to Feliz...well, my hatred of Pedro is well-documented here. The only question, I guess, is what did Sabean expect when he brought Feliz back this offseason? That he'd magically turn into Matt Williams? We fans pretty much anticipated another year of Felizian helplessness at the plate, and we've been treated to exactly that. Seriously though, if Feliz is the Giants everyday third baseman again next season...well, remember George Brett's reaction when the ump tossed him for having too much pine tar on his bat? Yeah, that'll be me.
Aurilia has been hampered by injuries, but it's hard to really say how much they've affected his hitting. What I do know is that he wasn't much good in 2004, then he did well in a great hitters' park for the 2005 and 2006 seasons, and now he's back in a pitcher's park and he stinks.
Not to beat a dead horse, but this infield ineptness is yet another shining example of Sabean's flawed "proven veterans" philosophy. It was certainly fair to assume that Vizquel, Durham, Klesko, and Aurilia wouldn't be nearly this bad, but when you're dealing with players over age 35 you have to realize that they could crap out at any minute. Some players age well, some don't. So it's totally foolish to rely on such an aged group of players to help a team win, when the risk of them falling apart is so high.
As for Feliz, well, he isn't over 35...he just blows.
Labels: brian sabean rant, offensive anemia
