Monday, March 31, 2008
Last Minute Tweaks and Some Predictions
Last night I watched meaningful baseball for the first time in like five months and it was a big breath of fresh air after a sordid winter. It's been too long. The new Nationals park looks nice, but it's hard to differentiate it from all of the other new, retro-looking parks that have opened since 2000. The Braves-Nats contest turned into a thriller, though watching Nick Johnson slide feet first trying to leg out a double, after missing all of last year to a broken leg, had me covering my eyes. He's one of the key players on my fantasy team and I won't be able to watch Nationals games without cringing every time the injury-prone NJ takes two steps.
In Giants news, the team set their 25-man roster, with a couple of surprises. Keiichi Yabu made the team as a swingman, and little-known minor league vet Steve Holm beat out Eliezer Alfonzo and Guillermo Rodriguez for the backup catcher job. Merkin "pubic wig" Valdez and Erick Threets also earned spots in the bullpen, with Steve Kline getting a long-deserved jettison.
Yabu was a non-roster invitee whose only major league experience came in 2005 with the A's, when he served as a mop-up man and performed at about league average. He's around to serve in the same role again, and to toss some innings in case the young guys falter. Plus, he's 39, so he'll surely fit right in with this Giants team. There might be the potential for something more, and you know how much I love those CHUBs.
Holm impressed the Giants with his defense behind the plate and that enabled him to steal the backup job in the wake of Alfonzo's horrendous spring training performance. Holm's minor league hitting numbers don't look too impressive (.719 career OPS), but at the very least it seems as though he can take a walk and knock one out of the park once in a while, so he shouldn't be a complete loss at the plate. Any time an organizational soldier like Holm gets a shot in the Show it's fun, so he should be an easy player to root for. Plus, he's a Sactown boy, so I have to give him extra props for that.
Valdez (otherwise known as "Not Damian Moss") has had a tumultuous, injury-laden career, but he still throws hard as hell and the Giants had to stick him on the 25-man roster because he'd have been snapped up off of waivers in a nanosecond by some other team. If he ever learns where home plate is, he could be special, though it'll be interesting to see what his fate is once Vinnie Chulk comes off the DL this month.
Dumping Kline was the right thing to do because 1) he sucks and 2) it enabled the Giants to keep Threets as a left-handed reliever. Threets throws hard and is a bit of a project, but if he straightens out his control, he could be a good LOOGY. Kline's performance had deteriorated substantially in the past few years and his main contribution last season was providing me with a belly-laugh after he got dissed by Yorvit Torrealba in the press. Since he can't even get lefties out anymore, his role has gone from "LOOGY" to "worthless".
--We're almost at first pitch. Here's what the Giants' Opening Day lineup is going to be:
LF Roberts
1B Aurilia
RF Winn
C Molina
2B Durham
CF Rowand
3B Castillo
SS Bocock
P Zito
I'd make with the snide comments, but we've been down that road one too many times. Let's just root for a little upset city down in L.A., and for Bocock! to go Mike Benjamin '95 on the Dodgers over this three-game set. I won't jinx the Giants by predicting a score, but I will say that Rich Aurilia will hit the team's only home run today. No reason for it really, just the goatee love.
Here are some quick predictions for the Giants' 2008 team leaders, so when the season ends we can all come back to this post and bask in the glow of my genius. Or something like that.
BA: Randy Winn, .295
R: Winn, 80
2B: Winn, 36
3B: Dave Roberts, 9
HR: Aaron Rowand, 17
RBI: Rowand, 71
SB: Roberts, 43
BB: Ray Durham, 61
OPS: Durham, .825
Yeah, I obviously don't expect much offense from this group, and even those projections could be considered optimistic. Durham's team-leading OPS is more wishful thinking than intelligent prognostication, and if Eugenio Velez ever hits his way into the starting lineup he'll easily lead the team in steals.
W: Tim Lincecum, 12
K: Lincecum, 205
IP: Matt Cain, 223
ERA: Lincecum, 3.12
SV: Brian Wilson, 23
Lincecum's projection is probably a tad unrealistic, but I do think he'll be the best pitcher on the staff, with Cain coming into his own as the team's resident workhorse. There won't be a lot of wins for Wilson to save, but any Giants victory will probably be low-scoring, so if he can handle the closer's role, a 30-save season isn't out of the question.
I'm going to get my projected standings for all of baseball up in the next few days, so until then, Go Giants!
In Giants news, the team set their 25-man roster, with a couple of surprises. Keiichi Yabu made the team as a swingman, and little-known minor league vet Steve Holm beat out Eliezer Alfonzo and Guillermo Rodriguez for the backup catcher job. Merkin "pubic wig" Valdez and Erick Threets also earned spots in the bullpen, with Steve Kline getting a long-deserved jettison.
Yabu was a non-roster invitee whose only major league experience came in 2005 with the A's, when he served as a mop-up man and performed at about league average. He's around to serve in the same role again, and to toss some innings in case the young guys falter. Plus, he's 39, so he'll surely fit right in with this Giants team. There might be the potential for something more, and you know how much I love those CHUBs.
Holm impressed the Giants with his defense behind the plate and that enabled him to steal the backup job in the wake of Alfonzo's horrendous spring training performance. Holm's minor league hitting numbers don't look too impressive (.719 career OPS), but at the very least it seems as though he can take a walk and knock one out of the park once in a while, so he shouldn't be a complete loss at the plate. Any time an organizational soldier like Holm gets a shot in the Show it's fun, so he should be an easy player to root for. Plus, he's a Sactown boy, so I have to give him extra props for that.
Valdez (otherwise known as "Not Damian Moss") has had a tumultuous, injury-laden career, but he still throws hard as hell and the Giants had to stick him on the 25-man roster because he'd have been snapped up off of waivers in a nanosecond by some other team. If he ever learns where home plate is, he could be special, though it'll be interesting to see what his fate is once Vinnie Chulk comes off the DL this month.
Dumping Kline was the right thing to do because 1) he sucks and 2) it enabled the Giants to keep Threets as a left-handed reliever. Threets throws hard and is a bit of a project, but if he straightens out his control, he could be a good LOOGY. Kline's performance had deteriorated substantially in the past few years and his main contribution last season was providing me with a belly-laugh after he got dissed by Yorvit Torrealba in the press. Since he can't even get lefties out anymore, his role has gone from "LOOGY" to "worthless".
--We're almost at first pitch. Here's what the Giants' Opening Day lineup is going to be:
LF Roberts
1B Aurilia
RF Winn
C Molina
2B Durham
CF Rowand
3B Castillo
SS Bocock
P Zito
I'd make with the snide comments, but we've been down that road one too many times. Let's just root for a little upset city down in L.A., and for Bocock! to go Mike Benjamin '95 on the Dodgers over this three-game set. I won't jinx the Giants by predicting a score, but I will say that Rich Aurilia will hit the team's only home run today. No reason for it really, just the goatee love.
Here are some quick predictions for the Giants' 2008 team leaders, so when the season ends we can all come back to this post and bask in the glow of my genius. Or something like that.
BA: Randy Winn, .295
R: Winn, 80
2B: Winn, 36
3B: Dave Roberts, 9
HR: Aaron Rowand, 17
RBI: Rowand, 71
SB: Roberts, 43
BB: Ray Durham, 61
OPS: Durham, .825
Yeah, I obviously don't expect much offense from this group, and even those projections could be considered optimistic. Durham's team-leading OPS is more wishful thinking than intelligent prognostication, and if Eugenio Velez ever hits his way into the starting lineup he'll easily lead the team in steals.
W: Tim Lincecum, 12
K: Lincecum, 205
IP: Matt Cain, 223
ERA: Lincecum, 3.12
SV: Brian Wilson, 23
Lincecum's projection is probably a tad unrealistic, but I do think he'll be the best pitcher on the staff, with Cain coming into his own as the team's resident workhorse. There won't be a lot of wins for Wilson to save, but any Giants victory will probably be low-scoring, so if he can handle the closer's role, a 30-save season isn't out of the question.
I'm going to get my projected standings for all of baseball up in the next few days, so until then, Go Giants!
Labels: bad predictions, spring training battles
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
No Lineup For Young Men
Well, it seems as though Kevin Frandsen is not guaranteed to be the club's starting shortstop in Omar Vizquel's absence. Apparently, Bruce Bochy has been so horrified by Frandsen's defense that he's looking for other options, something not too surprising for those of us who remember watching Frandsen fumble around at the position last season.
The Giants' infield situation is now a complete mess with Vizquel out, and the team is reduced to the unenviable position of gagging through a Frandsen/Eugenio Velez/Rich Aurilia dogfight at third base and shortstop. Here's a (very, very) tentative projected Opening Day lineup, updated to fit the void left by Vizquel. People with heart conditions may want to leave the room now.
LF: Roberts
RF: Winn
CF: Rowand
C: Molina
2B: Durham
SS: Aurilia
1B Ortmeier
3B: Frandsen
I'm not sure what's more disgusting: the fact that any team would be content to trot this out on Opening Day, or the fact that this actually represents an upgrade over the Giants' ideal lineup with Vizquel gone. Obviously, it's a huge defensive dropoff with Vizquel out, but in any case, if we're using movie analogies, this lineup is pure Manos: Hands of Fate territory.
If Frandsen doesn't win the third base job, or moves to second in the event that the Giants can unload Durham, it'd likely mean that either a Joe Crede trade becomes a sure thing, or Velez gets a shot. Since it's probably a bad idea to give up a good pitcher for the honor of watching Crede star in Feliz II: Electric Boogaloo, it seems best to see what Velez has to offer.
Velez opened some eyes after putting up a .318/.373/.560 line at single A in 2006, with 64 stolen bases in 80 attempts. Unfortunately, he was way older than most of the competition and was playing in the hitter-happy Sally League. He's another of these slap-happy guys who can't work a walk to save his life, and I'm sure he'd just be a nightmare at the major league level. Then again, he's young enough to possibly make good on those minor league numbers, so why the hell not at least give him a chance to exceed my Neifi-level expectations?
Of course, there's a better option sitting in front of everybody's face, and yet no one (well, almost no one) gives him a mention. Justin Leone is now batting .571 in the Spring and is practically begging for someone to notice him. I've said it before and I'll say it again: give the guy a @#&$! chance! His career OPS in the minors is .846, so he clearly has something in his bat. He's likely a better option than the unholy Frandsen/Aurila/Velez troika and if he does end up stinking he can be discarded because he isn't getting paid much. It makes no sense, I tells ya.
The Giants' infield situation is now a complete mess with Vizquel out, and the team is reduced to the unenviable position of gagging through a Frandsen/Eugenio Velez/Rich Aurilia dogfight at third base and shortstop. Here's a (very, very) tentative projected Opening Day lineup, updated to fit the void left by Vizquel. People with heart conditions may want to leave the room now.
LF: Roberts
RF: Winn
CF: Rowand
C: Molina
2B: Durham
SS: Aurilia
1B Ortmeier
3B: Frandsen
I'm not sure what's more disgusting: the fact that any team would be content to trot this out on Opening Day, or the fact that this actually represents an upgrade over the Giants' ideal lineup with Vizquel gone. Obviously, it's a huge defensive dropoff with Vizquel out, but in any case, if we're using movie analogies, this lineup is pure Manos: Hands of Fate territory.
If Frandsen doesn't win the third base job, or moves to second in the event that the Giants can unload Durham, it'd likely mean that either a Joe Crede trade becomes a sure thing, or Velez gets a shot. Since it's probably a bad idea to give up a good pitcher for the honor of watching Crede star in Feliz II: Electric Boogaloo, it seems best to see what Velez has to offer.
Velez opened some eyes after putting up a .318/.373/.560 line at single A in 2006, with 64 stolen bases in 80 attempts. Unfortunately, he was way older than most of the competition and was playing in the hitter-happy Sally League. He's another of these slap-happy guys who can't work a walk to save his life, and I'm sure he'd just be a nightmare at the major league level. Then again, he's young enough to possibly make good on those minor league numbers, so why the hell not at least give him a chance to exceed my Neifi-level expectations?
Of course, there's a better option sitting in front of everybody's face, and yet no one (well, almost no one) gives him a mention. Justin Leone is now batting .571 in the Spring and is practically begging for someone to notice him. I've said it before and I'll say it again: give the guy a @#&$! chance! His career OPS in the minors is .846, so he clearly has something in his bat. He's likely a better option than the unholy Frandsen/Aurila/Velez troika and if he does end up stinking he can be discarded because he isn't getting paid much. It makes no sense, I tells ya.
Labels: bad movie analogies, eugenio velez, give leone a chance, kevin frandsen, spring training battles
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Spring Disasters
The first KNBR Giants broadcast of spring training has always brought with it good feelings and memories, none better than three years ago, when I was hobbled with a severe ankle sprain and could do nothing but sit in my room and listen to Jon Miller and Duane Kuiper. The dulcet sounds of The Great Ones made the pain go away.
On Saturday, I flipped on the radio expecting a similar sense of euphoria. I thought, as with every March, the sounds of baseball would be music to my ears after a depressing winter of steroid allegations and miserable superstar trade returns. No such luck. The sounds of birds chirping, fans chattering, vendors hocking, and bats connecting- indeed, lots of bats connecting- were all there. Unfortunately, there would be no fond memories to be had from this sunny Spring Training day.
I turned the game on in the third inning, and upon hearing the score, the first thing I could think of was my dear old friend...
Zito was a disaster in his Spring debut, as the A's got up 13-0 after three innings and walloped the Giants to the tune of 23-5. Not exactly the kind of start we Giants fans wanted out of the gate for Zito, a guy for whom we're still holding out a sliver of hope that he can sort of, kind of justify that contract after a poor 2007. Luckily, Zito was much better in his second outing against the Royals on Wednesday, so perhaps it was jitters, or maybe he's still secretly on the A's payroll (he did get beat down by them twice last season).
Then there's Noah Lowry. Yeah, we were all concerned about his declining peripheral numbers, but where the hell did this come from? In his start against the Rangers on Monday, Lowry walked nine batters in an inning-plus, but that's only the beginning of the story. Many of his offerings had the fans behind home plate thanking their lucky stars for the protective screens in front of them. Lowry's performance more resembled an RPG attack than a pitcher trying to get outs, as he threw several pitches over the catcher's head, endangering fans, birds, UFOs and many other low-flying creatures. It would have been easier to believe that Lowry were out there doing some sort of comedy routine, because this manner of wildness is almost unheard of.
It was later revealed that Lowry had a case of exertional compartmental syndrome in his forearm (yeah, I'm as confused as you are. Try this), as opposed to some mental breakdown. Lowry also bristled when reporters compared his mound antics to Rick Ankiel's famous 2000 playoff meltdown. He's expected to miss at least a month, and hopefully this injury is the cause of the wildness, so that Lowry can go back to being an effective pitcher upon his return.
The problem is that Lowry is still no sure thing to still be anything close to good even if he can fully recover. As we all know, his 14-8 record and 3.92 ERA were both the product of unbelievable luck, luck that in a just world would have gone to Matt Cain. Lowry's K:BB ratio was an awful 87:87 in 156 innings, and his ability to keep the ball in the yard was probably all that kept his ERA from ballooning up to 5.00.
Lowry has now gone from a cost-controlled young pitching asset to a major question mark in less than six months, and he isn't even a guarantee to make the rotation anymore if Kevin Correia or Jonathan Sanchez can establish themselves. All of the trade value we Giants fans were hyping up for Lowry is now gone, as he's now an injury-riddled potential head case who can't even be described as an innings-eater (he hasn't broken 160 innings since his terrific 2005 season, and he probably won't touch it this year). It looks like Dave Righetti may have his work cut out for him putting this once-promising lefty back together again.
The battle for Lowry's spot in the rotation is now on. Correia likely seems entrenched now after his strong showing in eight 2007 starts. If it were up to me, I'd give Sanchez a month in the rotation and give him a chance to fail. He has the stuff to excel and he has nothing to prove in the minors anymore. He's been jerked around by the Giants for too long, and it's time to just leave him alone and see what he's got. If the Giants decide to ignore him for more veteran mediocrity goodness like, say, Victor Santos, I think I'm going to throw up all over my keyboard.
On Saturday, I flipped on the radio expecting a similar sense of euphoria. I thought, as with every March, the sounds of baseball would be music to my ears after a depressing winter of steroid allegations and miserable superstar trade returns. No such luck. The sounds of birds chirping, fans chattering, vendors hocking, and bats connecting- indeed, lots of bats connecting- were all there. Unfortunately, there would be no fond memories to be had from this sunny Spring Training day.
I turned the game on in the third inning, and upon hearing the score, the first thing I could think of was my dear old friend...
Zito was a disaster in his Spring debut, as the A's got up 13-0 after three innings and walloped the Giants to the tune of 23-5. Not exactly the kind of start we Giants fans wanted out of the gate for Zito, a guy for whom we're still holding out a sliver of hope that he can sort of, kind of justify that contract after a poor 2007. Luckily, Zito was much better in his second outing against the Royals on Wednesday, so perhaps it was jitters, or maybe he's still secretly on the A's payroll (he did get beat down by them twice last season).
Then there's Noah Lowry. Yeah, we were all concerned about his declining peripheral numbers, but where the hell did this come from? In his start against the Rangers on Monday, Lowry walked nine batters in an inning-plus, but that's only the beginning of the story. Many of his offerings had the fans behind home plate thanking their lucky stars for the protective screens in front of them. Lowry's performance more resembled an RPG attack than a pitcher trying to get outs, as he threw several pitches over the catcher's head, endangering fans, birds, UFOs and many other low-flying creatures. It would have been easier to believe that Lowry were out there doing some sort of comedy routine, because this manner of wildness is almost unheard of.
It was later revealed that Lowry had a case of exertional compartmental syndrome in his forearm (yeah, I'm as confused as you are. Try this), as opposed to some mental breakdown. Lowry also bristled when reporters compared his mound antics to Rick Ankiel's famous 2000 playoff meltdown. He's expected to miss at least a month, and hopefully this injury is the cause of the wildness, so that Lowry can go back to being an effective pitcher upon his return.
The problem is that Lowry is still no sure thing to still be anything close to good even if he can fully recover. As we all know, his 14-8 record and 3.92 ERA were both the product of unbelievable luck, luck that in a just world would have gone to Matt Cain. Lowry's K:BB ratio was an awful 87:87 in 156 innings, and his ability to keep the ball in the yard was probably all that kept his ERA from ballooning up to 5.00.
Lowry has now gone from a cost-controlled young pitching asset to a major question mark in less than six months, and he isn't even a guarantee to make the rotation anymore if Kevin Correia or Jonathan Sanchez can establish themselves. All of the trade value we Giants fans were hyping up for Lowry is now gone, as he's now an injury-riddled potential head case who can't even be described as an innings-eater (he hasn't broken 160 innings since his terrific 2005 season, and he probably won't touch it this year). It looks like Dave Righetti may have his work cut out for him putting this once-promising lefty back together again.
The battle for Lowry's spot in the rotation is now on. Correia likely seems entrenched now after his strong showing in eight 2007 starts. If it were up to me, I'd give Sanchez a month in the rotation and give him a chance to fail. He has the stuff to excel and he has nothing to prove in the minors anymore. He's been jerked around by the Giants for too long, and it's time to just leave him alone and see what he's got. If the Giants decide to ignore him for more veteran mediocrity goodness like, say, Victor Santos, I think I'm going to throw up all over my keyboard.
Labels: bad zito, noah lowry, spring training battles
