Give 'em Some Stankeye!

I've decided that the winter meetings might be the single biggest threat to my work productivity, or at least a close second to manic Google image searches of Cote de Pablo. I swear, if Rotoworld.com was blocked off at the company I work at, I'd probably walk out in an obscenity-laced huff. Nothing breaks up the monotony of waiting for reams of insurance data to process quite like clicking over to check the up-to-the-minute rumor-mongering in the baseball world, complete with the obligatory snark-laden Rotoworld commentary. I just hope my bosses don't ever get suspicious enough to check out the 18 tabs I have open on my Internet browser every day.

Today provided us with the usual buttload of rumors, but no actual big name player movement, unless you want to call the sorry sack from Death of a Salesman a "big name". The general theory seems to be that everybody is waiting for the Johan Santana trade to go through, then the frantic trading will begin. Other big names that have come up in trade talks are Dan Haren, Eric Bedard, Scott Rolen, and, of course, Miguel Cabrera. I'd be shocked if Haren goes anywhere, but Bedard seems to really be on his way out, though I don't know what the Orioles are thinking. What a garbage organization. If the rumored Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for Detroit's entire farm system goes through, it makes the Tigers the heavy favorite to win the AL Central, probably for the next few years.

As for Rolen, the Giants seem to be his rumored destination, with Noah Lowry going over to the Redbirds, and St. Louis paying a hefty portion of Rolen's salary. I love Rolen and all, but what's the point? Can't the Giants find a younger, less MASH unit-prone third baseman for Lowry, like Edwin Encarnacion (which was also rumored, hopefully closer to reality)? I guess the best-case scenario is that Rolen comes over as a sort of stopgap, returns to All-Star form while the Giants shore up holes at other positions, and leads the team to an improbable run at contention. Not bloody likely, but it's the only reason I see for the interest, unless it means unloading another bad contract like Dave Roberts, or flipping Rolen at the trade deadline if he pumps up his value enough.

There were also a bunch of rumors involving Tim Lincecum, as per usual, including a quote from one anonymous sumbitch in the Cincinnati organization who said the Giants "have to" trade Lincecum (Lefty Malo has the link). Yeah, the Giants "have to" trade Lincecum like your team "had to" trade Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for a bunch of crappy relievers, you stupid jackass. Luckily, it seems that Brian Sabean has had enough and is taking both Lincecum and Matt Cain out of any trade considerations, a move that gets a hardy applaud in this corner.

Perhaps the most terrifying rumor has the Giants interested in Shawn Green. Let's just say that if Shawn Green suits up for the Giants in 2008 I'm turning Stankeye into a freaking Kansas City Royals blog. I swear to God. A move like that, in the position the Giants are in, is just too asinine for words. Also firmly in the "hells no" category is the Giants' supposed interest in trading for Ben Broussard, a 30-year-old first baseman who has cracked a .335 OBP just once in his six-year career. Sigh...the more things change, the more they stay the same I suppose.

Labels: cote de pablo is hot, trade stuff, winter meetings

With the winter meetings kicking into gear next week, it'll be interesting to see what moves, if any, Brian Sabean makes. With the Angels and Dodgers looking like clear favorites to land Miguel Cabrera, and the Devil Rays already making their long-awaited young-hitting-for-young-pitching trade, it seems likely that the Giants will need to look elsewhere to upgrade the offense. At least, we can only hope Sabean is going into these meetings hell-bent on picking up hitters, because if not, the Giants are stuck trying to turn dogshit into diamonds with a bunch of C-level prospects.

Catcher Bengie Molina seems to be the Giant most likely (or at least most-rumored) to be peddled, most likely to a contender looking for a decent bat from behind the plate. The Mets were the sexy pick to land Molina, and even though they picked up Johnny Estrada from the Brewers, they still might non-tender him and go looking for somebody better. The Mets have a number of solid prospects (Keith Law nearly blew a gasket in a chat today while defending the Mets' farm system), and might be willing to send one the Giants' way in order to get a catcher with possible 20-homer pop.

In my mind, Sabean should be trying to trade Molina like crazy, but sadly Bengie's value is probably being overhyped by a lot of fellow Giants fans. Molina had a fine year in '07, and should continue to hit for decent power, but he never walks, which means his offensive value tends to be very batting average-dependent. If he loses an ounce of bat speed, his OBP will plummet to even more unacceptable levels and he'll just be another abysmal Giants hitter. Also, he just logged a career high in games played, never a good sign for a 32-year-old catcher, and it's fair to question how much those knees have left in them. Enough to keep him productive throughout the remainder of his deal? The Giants can only hope.

Of course, you don't need me to tell you any of this. You already know that hitters with zero plate discipline tend to fall apart in a hurry, and that catchers often don't last too far into their 30's, at least not without a position change. Herein lies the problem: just about every other GM in the major leagues knows this too. The bad part about living in the post-Moneyball information age is that everybody is getting smarter in regards to how they value players. Sure, there will always be the Krivdas and Littlefields of the world, but the number of patsies who will overpay for veteran know-how is dwindling by the second.

The "win-now" mindset might still have enough pull to persuade some contender to give up a juicy bit of talent for Molina, but I have my doubts. Maybe I'm underrating Bengie's value, but if I'm a rival owner and my GM trades a player with any kind of potential for a player of Molina's caliber, I'd be livid.

This shouldn't take away from the larger point, though. If there's a good offer for Molina, do it. An Elizier Alfonzo/Guillermo Rodriguez offense/defense platoon wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, and it would free up money to use to upgrade other positions. Plus, the odds on Bengie's bat going into the tank, as I discussed above, are all too high. The Bengie rumors seem to have died down a bit, but keep a close watch next week as the meetings go on.

Labels: bengie molina, prayer for an intelligent sabean decision, trade stuff

It was certainly a happy Thanksgiving for us Giants fans, even though the team itself did absolutely nothing. No, we should all be joining hands to celebrate the signings of Torii Hunter and Francisco Cordero to too many years at goofy money, two moves that nicely take away any temptation the Giants may have had to overpay for these guys themselves.

The shocking part of the Hunter signing isn't the fact that he was overpaid (hell, I'm surprised he only got five years), but who did the overpaying. The Angels signed Hunter to play center field when they already have a grossly overpaid center fielder of their own and a glut of other outfielders on the 40-man roster. It seems like kind of a redundant PR move. I love Hunter and all, and he's fun to watch, but he's also entering his 30's and likely will start to decline both offensively and defensively pretty soon, and his bat isn't all that good in the first place. I'll echo this guy's sentiments.

Cordero, though...where do I begin? The Giants were actually rumored to be interested in Cordero at one point, but if they'd paid Cordero the $46 million over four years that he got from the Reds I'd have pulled a Terminator and gone back in time to off Brian Sabean's mom before he was even conceived. How do you justify handing out nearly $12 million a year to a reliever who will only give you like 70 innings max? Cordero is good, yes, but he's not Mariano Rivera or Eric Gagne circa 2003, and guys like him tend to be hanging cheaply around baseball, if you just know where to look. Do you think it's a fluke that the Padres came up with Heath Bell, Scott Linebrink, and Cla Meredith?

I can just picture Reds GM Wayne Krivsky this morning, leaning back in his chair, high on turducken leftovers, cackling in joy at his new gem. Hey, they solved their closer problem, right? Too bad the rest of their roster is a bloody mess. I guess the moral of the story here is that, as much as we Giants fans bitch about our GM and his oft-puzzling moves, it could be much, much worse. So let's all stop and belatedly give thanks to the GMs who may have saved the Giants from themselves this offseason.

-Speaking of the Reds, there was a small rumor that they might be open to trading Josh Hamilton in order to clear out some of the crowd in the outfield. I'm going to say it right now: Noah Lowry for Hamilton. Hamilton's history of injury and personal problems make him a risk, but he can flat out rake (.292/.368/.554 in his rookie season) and the Giants need some young power hitters. He's a 35-homer guy if he can stay out of the trainer's room and out of the back of a squad car.

The question is, would the Reds do it? I'm not so sure. Any baseball front office-type should be able to look at Lowry's numbers and see that a lot of his good fortune last season came because he was very stingy with the home run ball. Now take him out of Mays Field and put him in Great American Ballpark, a much more homer-friendly ballpark, and it's not hard to see Lowry's ERA ballooning. Suddenly, you've traded a young, All-Star-caliber slugger for a cheaper, marginally less-shitty version of Eric Milton.

I'd take the risk if I were the Giants, mostly because I'm very down on Lowry at this point, but I really can't see the Reds willing to go for it, especially when they have two near-frontline starting pitchers already and a couple of other potential aces on the horizon. Of course, the Reds aren't exactly the paragon of intelligent baseball decision-making, so stay tuned.

-TGIF Random Video...

Labels: insane free agent signings, josh hamilton, noah lowry, trade stuff

I'm not sure what to make of this article by Tracy Ringolsby, which mentions that the Giants may be willing to trade Tim Lincecum for a "quality bat". Perhaps Ringolsby has just confused Lincecum for Noah Lowry, as Rotoworld speculated (the rest of Ringolsby's article is littered with factual errors), or maybe he's just had a little too much of the drinky-drinky, but this has touched off some shockwaves throughout the Giants community, and rightfully so. This is the sort of unthinkable doomsday scenario that should have hordes of murderous Giants fans breaking down Brian Sabean's front door with pitchforks and torches in hand (or they could just hire this guy to nuke Sabes's house).

Let me come out and say that I'm not in the "Lincecum-as-untouchable" camp. I think that the Giants should certainly be open to trading him, if the right deal comes along. If it takes Lincecum to get a potential star-quality bat, a guy who can turn into a franchise player, it's worth strongly considering. After all, I still believe that a team can return to contention quicker by rebuilding the offense than by focusing more on pitching, as the Giants have, for the simple reason that hitters are just less likely to get injured. Pitchers are just unpredictable animals, especially pitchers built like high school A/V geeks, and sometimes you just have to hold your breath and take some risks in order to improve (okay, at least risks that have some chance in hell of working out).

Lincecum, of course, looks like he might be one of the best pitchers in the league very soon, and he's under the Giants' control for the next five years or so. All of this means that if he's going to be traded, the Giants need to just demand the hills. I mean, go crazy. Screw it, ask for Carl Crawford and Reid Brignac. It might make the DRay front office harumph, but that's what it's going to take, baby.

No, the problem here isn't the idea that Lincecum might be used as trade bait; it's the idea that Brian Sabean is using him as trade bait. Look, I don't mean to keep knocking the poor guy (well, yeah I do), but I just have no confidence whatsoever that Sabean can get a good enough return if he does choose to put Timmy on the table. This is the guy, after all, who traded Francisco Liriano, a Lincecum-caliber talent, for a middling catcher, all the while feeling the need to throw in an All-Star closer and...well, let's not bring back those old sordid memories.

Another scary bit is this nebulous "quality bat" that Ringolsby talks about. Is he talking "Evan Longoria" quality or "Miguel Cabrera" quality? Or is it far, far worse? Once again, Sabean's definition of "quality" is sketchy at best, but I'd like to think he hasn't fallen so far from his pre-2002 trade acumen that he'd entertain an offer of anything less than a player who is one step away from being a superstar. If the article had said "potential franchise cornerstone", then maybe I'd feel a little safer. Maybe.

All in all, it's probably completely irrelevant. While it is a little scary that BP has picked up the rumor (with Carl Crawford potentially coming this way...meh), I still think this is probably just a bit of goofy Internet speculation churned out by a bored writer with too much writing space and way too much JD. The hysteria will probably wear off, just like it did when those crazy rumors of a Mike Matheny signing floated around a few years back.

Oh, wait...

Labels: Tim Lincecum, trade stuff

Okay, I can't find a link for this anywhere, but apparently the Giants have traded Mark Sweeney to the Dodgers for a player to be named later. Talk about making a deal with the devil. I suddenly feel very sick. If this is true, it must be the first trade between these two teams since...when? I can't remember off the top of my head, and I'm too lazy to look. Did the Giants trade Trenidad Hubbard to the Bums in '98? Sounds sorta familiar.

Given the way Sweeney has hit this season, perhaps this is just a nifty sabotage job being carried out by Brian Sabean. Maybe get a potentially useful player from our arch-rivals for a little-used pinch hitter who will probably end up hurting them in the end? Brilliant!

To be fair, Sweeney did take over second place on the all-time pinch hit list this season, which was kinda cool, and he hasn't been horrible as a Giant by any means. I guess he just sort of symbolizes the utter failure of Sabean to net an impact first baseman over the years, when there were a few floating out there begging to be picked up (cough Carlos Pena cough). I'd wish him good luck, but...it's the Dodgers, after all.

Update: All right, here's that link we were all so worried about. Ahhh, so nice and warm and it feels so good, I...uh, I mean...turn that camera off!

And to answer my previous query, the last time the Giants and Dodgers made a trade was in 1985, when the Giants got our old buddy Candy Maldonado for Alex Trevino.

Also, Trenidad Hubbard was actually sent to the Indians as part of the Matt Williams/Jeff Kent trade. Wow, see what three seconds of research will do for you?

Labels: dodgers suck, mark sweeney, trade stuff

With the trade deadline looming, it's all quiet on the Giants' front. This monster rebuild we all want looks like it may not come to fruition. If the team fails to make any major moves it will be hugely disappointing, if not terribly surprising. Another problem with Sabean's multi-year contract veteran binge this winter is that, when the realization hits that you should be a seller at the deadline, those contracts act as a huge detriment to getting a deal done.

Dave Roberts is a fine little player, and might garner some interest in a Red Sox 2004-ish way, but who wants to pay him $12 million over the next two years, and also give up prospects for the right to do so? Randy Winn is also a handy player for a contender, but his contract is poison. The same can be said for Rich Aurilia, Bengie Molina, and even Ray Durham. And Matt Morris? Don't get me started. He's been on Operation Destroy Trade Value for over a month, and given a chance to salvage some hope for a decent return in yesterday's ballgame, he went and shat himself real good, coughing up a 5-2 lead to the Marlins.

This is again why the Giants' future looks so dismal. The team is stuck with these veterans for up to two more years. These guys aren't very good, obviously, they aren't helping this team win, and no one else wants them. Therefore, if the Giants can't get some decent prospects through trade, and they have nothing promising in their farm system, where is the offense going to some from? Through more free agent signings? Brian Sabean, meet Eric Byrnes. "Hey, Eric, you're big in the Bay Area and we'd love to see your dog run amok in McCovey Cove on a regular basis. Just sign here on the dotted line for three years and $30 million." Kill me now.

Here are some players that I think still have some value in trade as we get closer to the deadline:

-Pedro Feliz. He's still horrible, but he's on one of his bi-annual hot streaks at the perfect time, so maybe a team desperate for a third baseman would be willing to throw some interesting players our way. Feliz is only on the hook for this season too, so a team wouldn't have to worry about being stuck with an albatross contract.

Looking around, it seems the Phillies are the only contender in real need of a third baseman. What's the best way to gauge when one of your regular position players should have his butt DFA'd? When Feliz would serve as a major upgrade on him. I'm looking at you, Abraham Nunez. Unfortunately, the Phils might just try to tread water with Wes Helms until Chase Utley gets back, then go with Tadahito Iguchi at third. Or go and get another, better third baseman from another team. You know, whatever.

-Ryan Klesko. The Yankees have a huge hole at first base, and ol' helicopter swing might be something they'd have interest in. After all, I doubt the Yanks are holding their breath waiting for the heroic return of Doug Mientkiewicz. Klesko is on a cheap deal and he can still hit, so he might be tradeable for a little curio prospect. I'd be kind of sad to see Klesko go, because he's a fun player, but since he's not going to bring back any draft picks, and for the purposes of getting younger, if a trade can be made, do it.

-Steve Kline. Uh, maybe we can get Shairon Martis for him. Left-handed relievers, especially those with lots of service time, are horribly overvalued in baseball today. Perhaps Sabean can get crafty and flip Kline to a contender with bullpen problems. Maybe pull a fast one and turn it into a Ricardo Rincon-for-Brian Giles-type dealie. Or not. Anyway, "get crafty" sounds like the title of some bad spoken word album sold at Starbucks. "Brian Sabean: Let's Get Crafty."

Labels: trade stuff

Now that we have that out of the way...

With the trade deadline coming up in a hurry, and the Giants in desperate need of an influx of younger players, it's very possible that we'll see some moves that cull some of the veterans from the roster and bring back something that will maybe make this team's future brighter. Unfortunately, the Giants may not have much to bargain with. Who's going to give up a young, strapping five-tool prospect for the sub-.300 OBP stylings of Dave Roberts, after all?

Matthew Pouliot of Rotoworld had some damning things to say about the Giants' trade leverage:

>The Giants and Red Sox continue to be linked, with Omar Vizquel, Randy Winn, Dave Roberts and, gulp, Matt Morris getting mentioned as possibilities for Boston. Still, I don't see how there can be much to it. Morris' trade value is gone. Winn is owed $16.25 million in 2008-09 and Roberts is due $13 million over the same timeframe, making them way too expensive to be carried as fourth outfielders. Vizquel has made it clear he doesn't want to be a utilityman.<

Ugh. Ugh and a half. Winn's contract-to-production ratio is poor enough to where he's basically trade poison, and if that weren't bad enough, he has a no-trade clause for this season, so rule him out completely. Roberts might have had some value if he weren't due, as the article above said, $13 million over the next two seasons. No one wants to pay that kind of money for a rapidly declining fourth outfielder-type (except the Giants apparently...grrrr). As for Morris...gulp indeed. He's been horrendous for over a month and any GM who trades for him should probably be fired on the spot. Although that's not to say I don't hope and pray that there's a GM out there dumb enough to actually do it.

Ryan Klesko might bring something back because he's still productive and dirt cheap, but don't expect Billy Butler or anything. Ray Durham also might have trade value, because he has a reasonable contract (I still say bringing back Durham was a decent gambit, even though he's sucked this year), and production at second base is hard to find. Would the Mets give up Lastings Milledge (weird baggage and all) for Durham? Here's a fun little debate about it.

In all, I think the Giants' most valuable trading chip is clearly Noah Lowry (well, it would be Cain or Lincecum but...you know). Lowry is young, he's cheap, and he has proven he can go out and give you 200 innings a year. Those are some traits that would make a lot of teams salivate. There are fringe contenders all over in need of pitching, namely the Yankees and Phillies, but there are also young teams like the Devil Rays who have more young outfielders than they know what to do with and might be a perfect trading match. There were rumors this past winter that Tampa Bay's Carl Crawford was on the block (who knows why, but this is the Devil Rays, after all). If the Giants could possibly swing Lowry and Jonathan Sanchez for Crawford, it's something they should do in a heartbeat. That's probably an LSD-trip scenario, but there should be something close that the Giants could work out.

Many fans are squeamish about gutting the Giants' stable of young pitching, and rightfully so. However, I'm not convinced Lowry is a player who should be regarded as an untouchable. Giants Cove beat me to the punch on this one, but I'll reiterate the argument, because it's a good one.

Like I said earlier, Lowry has proven he can go out and throw a lot of innings, but with his poor K/BB ratios (in decline since his terrific 2005) there's every indication that he's going to fall off, maybe not this year, but soon. You see, if a pitcher has the kind of average strikeout rates that Lowry does, without great control, like Lowry, it's a recipe for disaster. We've learned over the years from those pesky BABIP and DIPS nerds that the more balls that are put into play, the higher the likelihood that some are going to just fall in for lucky hits. It's a bitch, but that's the way the world turns. If a pitcher puts a lot of runners on base to go along with those balls being put in play, and he can't miss bats, he's walking a tightrope. One unlucky inning and his day is ruined.

This is Lowry's problem. If everything falls right, he could be an even better Kirk Rueter. There's nothing, nothing, wrong with that. However, what he isn't is some indispensible asset. If his home run rate ticks even a smidge northward (he's given up an absurd six homers in 119 innings; he gave up 21 in both '05 and '06), his ERA is going to skyrocket.

The market for pitching right now is, I'd say, irrational (take a look at the Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis contracts, after all). The market for young pitching is downright zany. I'm not saying the Giants should trade Lowry just for the hell of it. I'm saying they should dangle him out there and see what kind of offers bite back. If they get lowballed, keep him. He's a good pitcher. If the team can get a real, solid young player for him, though, a player who can serve as a building block to get this offense to a point of respectability, jump on it. He's the Giants' best bet for getting good value in a trade at the deadline.

Labels: bad zito, noah lowry, trade stuff